Energy

Here is the expected petrol price for September

Staff Writer

 ·15 Aug 2025

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows good news for motorists in South Africa, with both petrol and diesel on track for a cut in September.

This comes as the global oil price falls and the rand trades slightly stronger against the US dollar, although the latter is still keeping recoveries under pressure.

Thanks to these dynamics, petrol prices show an over-recovery of between 8 and 15 cents per litre, and diesel prices show an over-recovery of between 33 and 35 cents per litre.

These are the projections at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 15 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 8 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 33 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 35 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 26 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for August.

The daily snapshots from the CEF are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

However, the data does give a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects the current market trends for the first half of the month.

Oil prices tumble

Global oil prices have continued to trade lower in August, having lost about 10% this year on concerns over the effect on demand of the Trump tariffs and US trade policy as well as the rapid return of OPEC+ barrels.

US President Donald Trump launched global tariffs on key trade partners in August after threatening to do so since April 2025.

While various negotiations and deals were signed bringing some of these tariffs down, and a three-month pause gave markets time to digest the impact, the move sent waves through the global economy.

In terms of oil, the tariffs have a dampening effect on demand and production, exerting downward pressure on pricing.

A small spark of positivity is that the US trade war with China—a major oil consumer—has been put on ice for another three months, keeping some of the oil decline in check.

Unfortunately for oil traders, the cooling demand from the US tariffs is also hitting at the same time that supplies are ramping up, with oil producers (OPEC+) adding millions more barrels to the pot.

The combined impact of lower demand and higher supply has caused oil prices to fall from around $75 a barrel to current levels of $66, after a brief stint at $85 a barrel in June due to war between Israel and Iran.

Locally, the weaker oil price has led to an over-recovery of around 16cpl for petrol and 37cpl for diesel—the latter normalising somewhat after diesel shortages in the last month.

Rand on the right path

Reflecting similar patterns to oil markets, the rand has also been swinging around due to global forces, driven primarily by the tariff situation.

While the local unit is traditionally a highly volatile currency, it has been particularly reactive to market conditions in the United States impacting the dollar.

In August, the dollar has weakened, driving a stronger rand. This has benefitted fuel price recoveries—but the exchange is still running negative, undercutting the oil price recovery by about 3 cents per litre.

However, this is moving in a more positive direction.

The tariff chaos of the past few months has led to a weaker US dollar, ultimately benefiting the rand, but foreign policy issues between South Africa and the US have dimmed sentiment.

Notably, the weaker dollar has sent investors into safe-haven commodities like gold, which has also been a boon to the rand.

Gold is one of the few exports that the Trump administration has explicitly exempted from tariffs.

However, with volatility baked into the currency, its path ahead is sure to be rocky.

Investors will watch domestic inflation figures, due on Wednesday next week, closely for clues about the economy’s health.

This is how the price changes are expected to reflect at the pumps: