Bad news for braai lovers in South Africa
Meat prices in South Africa continue be elevated, and while economist expect inflation to cool for the last few months of the year, don’t expect prices to reverse any time soon.
While the basket price of hosting a braai in South Africa is still much higher than the same time last year, ingredients are cheaper compared to last month.
This is thanks to some big reductions to vegetable prices between July and August 2025, with the latest Braai Index showing a 3% drop month on month.
The Braai Index, originally developed by Bloomberg, is compiled monthly using pricing data from the Pietermaritzburg Equity Justice and Dignity (PMBEJD) group.
It tracks the prices of a selection of essential items typically used for a South African braai, offering a more focused view of inflation at the grill.
The index includes meat (beef, wors, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green pepper) and others (samp, maize, curry powder, salt).
The month-on-month index has shown another positive move for those who prefer the sides and salads at a braai over the main event—the meat.
Potatoes, carrots, spinach, onions, and tomatoes all decreased in price for the second consecutive month, meaning the salads were sorted.
Meat prices have continued to trend upwards, though only slightly. Beef and chicken edged up for another month, but luckily wors has come down.
Overall, the month-on-month basket was down slightly by 3.0% between July and August, a further reduction from the 0.9% decrease seen between June and July.
Unfortunately, annual price inflation remains high at 6.7% overall, though reduced from the 9% YoY in July and the 8.9% in June.
Salt and potatoes continued their year-on-year declines from July, joined this month by green peppers and onions.
All the other items in the basket increased year-on-year, with samp, spinach, beef and carrots showing double-digit spikes.
Month-on-month index change [-3.0%]
Year-on-year index change [+6.7%]
Price pressure feeding through
One of the biggest price pressures year-on-year is beef prices, which have been steadily climbing following the outbreak of foot and mouth disease at South Africa’s biggest feedlot earlier in the year.
The price inflation is also broadly in line with the price trajectory reported by Stats SA, which also showed Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (Food NAB) as a whole increasing 5.2% in July.
According to Stats SA, meat was the main driver of prices in July, accelerating by 10.5% and extending a strong upward trend that began in February.
On average, beef prices increased by 28.8% over the past 12 months and by 7.6% between June and July.
The average price for stewing beef was R94.80 in July 2024, climbing to R123.87 per kilogram in July 2025. Beef mince rose from R102.95 to R126.79 over the same period.
Experts say prices should eventually normalise, but the short-term spike was not unexpected. While Stats SA’s pricing reflects July 2025 data, the Braai Index shows that the trend continued in August.
According to Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, the latest producer price index (PPI) reflects more of the same.
The CPI figures from Stats SA lag a month behind PPI, with the meat inflation of 10.5% following the early PPI indications of this rate a month before.
The latest PPI published on Thursday (28 August) should then serve as a precursor for August inflation data. This shows that live animals’ price inflation is at 18.4% y/y.
“Statistical base effects on their own will drive live animals’ producer price inflation above 20% y/y this year, on last year’s sharp fall in prices, without consecutive sharp drops in monthly live animal prices,” Bishop said.
While the acceleration in meat price inflation is expected to slow in the remainder of the year, there is no expectation for this to turn negative, i.e. meat price deflation is not anticipated.
On the more positive side, grain price inflation is low on over supply, and can fall further on the good harvest in South Africa this year, providing some further counterbalance to high meat price inflation.
However, meat has a larger weighting in the CPI, Bishop noted. As a key component of the Braai Index, it is likely to also keep the year-on-year index elevated.
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