Energy

Highest petrol prices in South Africa’s history hitting next week

Staff Writer

 ·29 Sep 2026

South Africa faces the highest petrol prices on record next week, with under-recoveries projected to push prices over R30/litre.

Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that under-recoveries for Petrol 95 are now at R3.12 per litre, which is enough to push prices over the line if carried through.

The under-recovery for Petrol 93 is smaller, at R2.93 per litre.

Final price adjustments announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) often settle between the two, but economists anticipate price hikes of R3.00 per litre.

This could still put the final price just under R30 per litre, but it does not account for any adjustments to the slate levy, which may also affect the final number.

Even if prices miss the R30-per-litre mark, October will still see the highest petrol prices on record in South Africa without any government intervention—which is unlikely.

For diesel prices, the under-recoveries are just as steep, currently ranging from R2.73 to R3.13 per litre.

These are the projections at month-end:

• Petrol 93: increase of R2.93 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R3.12 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R2.73 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R3.13 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R3.38 per litre

According to Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop, the petrol price is likely to increase by around R3.00 per litre next week, thanks to the weaker rand and higher oil prices.

The rand is currently volatile, she said, though it is still trading in a modest range.

The currency is beholden to international events as the US-Iran stalemate persists and Brent crude oil remains above US$100 a barrel.

Bishop noted that fuel price concerns over the war in the Middle East have increased, with supply and price impacts on oil, petroleum products, and oil feedstocks rising as the war intensified.

There are also concerns that the war could spread further in the region.

“The conflict is already spreading to the Red Sea as Yemen’s Houthis block Saudi Arabian ships,” she said.

“President Trump has rejected the peace deal. Iran has said the US must choose between war and diplomacy, but negotiations remain ongoing.”

The economist noted that markets are being less reactive to machinations in the conflict than earlier in the year, which is reflected in the rand being in a narrower range.

The rand traded below R16/$ before the war and reached R17/$ at its worst. In recent months, it pushed toward R16/$ again and then stuck between that level and R16.50/$ again.

The unit is currently trading at R16.44/$—the weaker side of the range—but is still offsetting the under-recovery in fuel prices by around 4 cents per litre.

This is unfortunately not enough to make much of a dent in oil prices, which are close to $107 a barrel and contributing up to R3.18 per litre in under-recoveries.

Bishop said the main concern is that higher fuel prices will push CPI inflation back towards 5.0% y/y and could fuel another repo rate hike in South Africa in November.

She noted that markets have priced in two more 25bp moves in the United States for October and December.

Following last week’s rate hike in South Africa, the SARB sees current interest rates holding for the next 12 months or so before starting to come down.

However, should inflation continue to rise and inflation expectations follow suit, further hikes cannot be ruled out.

The DMPR will announce the official fuel price adjustments ahead of the changes taking effect next Wednesday, 7 October 2026.