Bad news for anyone having a braai in South Africa
The latest Braai Index for October 2026 shows that the cost of having a braai in South Africa is still rising, with a fifth consecutive month of y/y inflation biting into budgets.
More positively, however, the October index does mark a turn from the 5.2% peak hit in September, which was the highest Braai Index print in 12 months.
The Braai Index was recorded at 4.1% y/y in October, with 0.1% inflation month-on-month.
The index leads official inflation data, reflecting on-the-ground retail pricing in October across major cities, versus Stats SA’s inflation data for the month, which will only be published in November.
Stats SA’s food inflation print is sitting at 1.0% y/y in September, versus the Braai Index’s more targeted basket of 5.2% in the same month.
The braai basket is driven higher by specific food items, such as tomatoes, potatoes and onions, which have seen significant price increases over the past year, and even over the past month.
On the other end, the price of meat—beef, wors and chicken—has fallen, but off a high base due to recent pressures in the industry.
More generally, however, headline inflation is ticking higher due to much higher energy costs in 2026, driven by rising fuel prices resulting from the US-Iran war.
Rising prices reflect the second-round effects of these costs filtering through to other segments.
Food prices are affected not only by rising energy costs in farming but also by transport costs (freight and logistics).
Looking ahead, inflation in October is expected to rise to 5% due to the massive increase in fuel prices. November inflation is projected to cool thanks to a R10 billion fuel price relief package.
However, heading into 2027, the energy crisis has no end in sight, and the impacts of the El Niño weather event are also likely to apply pressure.
The Braai Index is compiled monthly by BusinessTech using pricing data from the PMBEJD. Its methodology originated from Bloomberg.
The PMBEJD’s data reflects actual prices across South Africa’s major provinces and includes items typically found in the shopping baskets of most South African households.
The basket consists of meat (beef, wors, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green peppers), and other items (samp, maize, curry powder, salt).
It’s important to note that the index is based on data from PMBEJD, which excludes other protein sources like pork and lamb; therefore, these alternatives are not included in the analysis.
Braai Index to October 2026
Braai Index September 2026 Month-on-Month [+0.1%]
Braai Index September 2026 Year-on-Year [+4.1%]
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