What happens when South Africa moves beyond stage 8 load shedding: Eskom exec
Eskom’s increasing reliance on diesel reserves and OCGTs (Open Cycle Gas Turbines) has raised concerns that the country could move to higher stages of load shedding in the coming weeks.
Addressing media on Wednesday morning (9 March), chief operating officer Jan Oberholzer said that Eskom was currently using nine million litres of diesel a day to keep its systems running.
Should the country run out of diesel reserves due to funding or the Russia and Ukraine invasion, then a worst-case scenario could see an additional six stages of load shedding introduced.
Oberholzer clarified that additional stages would be added to whatever load shedding had already been introduced. However, he noted that this partly informed Eskom’s decision to introduce stage 4 load shedding on Wednesday so that the country does not reach this scenario.
“For us burning diesel and having a financial bloody nose is better than putting the country at a higher load shedding level.”
The chief operating officer added that Eskom was still evaluating how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will impact its operations in the coming months.
Eskom’s current load shedding schedules run up to stage 8, which allows for 8,000MW to be pulled off the grid, resulting in 12 hours of the day being spent in darkness – though this varies according to the region and municipal schedule.
An additional six stages on current load shedding levels would point to a hypothetical stage 10 load shedding, which is uncharted territory.
However, Oberholzer has indicated that Eskom has contingencies should it have to move past stage 8 load shedding.
“Beyond stage 8, the system operator will instruct how many megawatts needs to be shed per province,” he said.
“That’s where we are currently (with the current schedules). When we’re at stage 8, that’s the decision that will be made by the system operator to protect the integrity of the system. That way we don’t find ourselves at risk of any possible blackout.”
The COO said that Eskom was looking at alternatives to burning diesel, specifically processing gas to produce electricity, but admitted that the country does not yet have the requisite infrastructure to accomplish this.
He said teams are investigating the potential to repurpose power stations that are at end-of-life to become gas stations.
Forecast
When asked for the load shedding forecast heading into winter, Oberholzer the focus, for now, is to get past the current crisis.
The system operator is working with the production unit on the outlook for the coming months, he said.
“I’m careful to say so, but the outlook (for winter) is more positive than it is now. But the unpredictability and unreliability of the system makes it difficult to say exactly what will happen,” he said.
“The risk of load shedding remains.”
Schedules
Eskom has currently instituted stage 4 load shedding until 05h00 on Friday (11 March). For people living in the major metros, load shedding schedules are available here:
- City of Johannesburg
- City of Ekurhuleni
- City of Tshwane
- City of Cape Town (PDF)
- Nelson Mandela Bay
- eThekwini
- Manguang
- Buffalo City
For access to other load shedding schedules, Eskom has made them available on loadshedding.eskom.co.za.
Smartphone users can also download the app EskomSePush to receive push notifications when load shedding is implemented, as well as the times the area you are in will be off.
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