Load shedding hope for South Africa
Minister of Energy and Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa won’t firmly commit to saying that load shedding is over in South Africa, but he says that “all indications suggest” Eskom’s current trajectory is sustainable.
The minister was answering a written parliamentary Q&A this week, where he was asked whether the turnaround at Eskom has definitively brought load shedding to an end.
Ramokgopa said that, since the beginning of the year, Eskom’s plant availability has been trending upwards, supported by a continued decrease in breakdowns.
“Generation has been able to maintain the unplanned losses below 14,000 MW throughout the winter period while leveraging the improved performance to conduct additional short-term (maintenance),” he said.
“The generation fleet is showing more reliable performance going into the summer of 2024 compared to 2023 – all indications suggest that this performance trajectory is sustainable.”
Without committing to an end to load shedding, the minister said that Eskom and his department’s efforts will continue and that generation capacity will be boosted by builds in line with the IRP—including the conversion of the Open Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) from diesel to gas and from open to close cycle operating systems.
As of 1 August, Eskom has hit 127 days of no load shedding since 26 March 2024, including 93 days of constant supply throughout the winter period.
Eskom reached a significant milestone on 23 July 2024 by achieving 35,000MW of available capacity, with an evening peak demand of 30,740MW.
“This level of available capacity has not been seen for six years, specifically since 16 July 2018. This achievement is attributed to reduced unplanned outages, which dropped to 9,238MW,” the group said.
Breakdowns have averaged between 9,800MW and 12,400MW since 1 April 2024, the start of Eskom’s Financial Year 2025.
Additionally, Eskom achieved an average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 70% over the week ending 26 July.
Despite the significantly improved performance of the generation grid, Ramokgopa, President Cyril Ramaphosa, and various energy experts have warned that the electricity crisis is not over, warning that the grid continues to dance on a fine edge.
They have repeatedly urged South Africans not to get complacent and not to think that the country’s power struggles are now over.
This is because one of the most significant factors helping the improved energy availability—which is constantly omitted from Eskom’s announcements—is the significant reduction in demand on the grid.
During winter, the electricity demand in South Africa is around 6,000 MW higher than during summer. Before the worst of load shedding in 2022 and 2023, this could push as high as 37,000MW during peak hours.
Demand this winter has largely been lower than 30,000MW.
Experts have attributed the drop in demand to lower economic activity—particularly from the mining sector—as well as a move away from Eskom-supplied power through energy alternatives like solar.
Should industries come back online, the risk of energy shortfalls increases, particularly if they are coupled with other unforeseen events, like increased breakdowns.
Other experts are more optimistic, however.
Professor Sampson Mamphweli of the South African National Energy Development Institute says the country could see the end of load-shedding as early as October 2024.
He expects demand to pick up in summer as industries come back online and households turn to aircons and fans to keep cool—but if the country can transition into summer without load shedding, proposects look very good.
“I am very much optimistic that we may be able to continue to sustain this until we start the beginning of summer, and if we go through the beginning of summer without load-shedding, we might see the end of load-shedding,” said Mamphweli.
“I am very confident that by November, December, the government should be declaring the end of load-shedding in South Africa.”
Adding to the hopeful outlook is the fact that more generating capacity is expected to come back online in the last few months of the year.
- Medupi Unit 4 is expected to return to service by August 2024, adding another 800MW to the national grid.
- Koeberg Unit 2 will return to service by the end of September 2024, returning 940MW to the grid.
Eskom recently brought another big unit — Kusile Unit 5 — online in late June 2024, adding 800MW to the national power grid and bringing Kusile Power Station’s total contribution to 4,000MW.
Construction of the remaining Kusile Unit 6 is progressing as planned, with it expected to be synchronised to the grid in November 2024.
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