When South Africa will finally say goodbye to load shedding

Eskom believes that load shedding will be a thing of the past by March 2025.

South Africa’s economy has been strained by load shedding since 2007, but Eskom looks set to turn a corner after 18 years.

Eskom said it is on track with its generation operation recovery plan, which would ensure enough power is available to prevent load shedding from needing to occur again.

The power utility said improving operations at the Matla power station in Mpumalanga has been a key reason for the suspension of load shedding for roughly 140 days.

As reported by SABC News, Matla Power Station General Manager Maserati Lesolang said the station’s Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) had dropped 14.24%.

The power station’s Energy availability factor (EAF) is currently just above 68%, and it plans to reach 70% by next year.

Although the country is not out of the woods when it comes to load shedding yet, Eskom said that hitting an overall EAF of 70% EAF would see the group produce 33,000 MW, which would be enough to end load shedding by next year as peak demand hits around 28,000 to 30,000 MW in winter.

On top of Eskom’s improved performance, South Africa’s energy supply has also benefited from the reduction in demand following the widespread uptake of solar panels in 2023.

Long-term goals

Eskom’s generation turnaround will also be key for the group, as it is about to face a far more competitive market after the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act ended its monopoly.

President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act into law last week. The legislation aims to foster greater competition and reduce energy costs.

“It also increases investment in new generation capacity to achieve energy security, establishes an independent transmission company as the custodian of the national grid, and imposes severe penalties for damage to and sabotage of infrastructure,” said the Presidency.

The Act establishes the duties, powers, and functions of the Transmission System Operator SOC Ltd (TSO).

The TWO will have to be established as an independent entity within five years. In the interim period, the National Transmission Company of South Africa will serve as the TSO.

The Act also provides for an open market platform that enables competitive wholesale or retail buying and selling of electricity.

It also states that market operation is a new activity that may be licensed by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA).

The rising cost of electricity has been a major point of contention in recent years, with Eskom’s increases being close to 90% higher than inflation over the last eight years.

Eskom’s proposed tariff increases of up to 40% by next year are also set to reach parliament.

The Democratic Alliance said that National Assembly Speaker Thoko Didiza confirmed officials would discuss the legality of NERSA’s decision to allow Eskom to add an R8 billion “make-up tariff” next year.

Leaked draft documents seen by Daily Maverick in June showed that Eskom would be seeking massive tariff hikes over the next three financial years:

• 2025/2026: 36.15%
• 2026/2027: 11.81%
• 2027/2028: 9.1%

The tariffs would apply to Eskom direct customers, with municipal customers facing even higher rate hikes.

“The potential impact of a 40% electricity tariff increase is horrendous for South Africans already struggling under a cost of living crisis,” Kevin Mileham, a DA member of parliament, said.

“If the regulator grants Eskom’s request, the population will be forced to choose between buying food and making electricity payments.”

With reporting from Bloomberg

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