Eskom load shedding outlook for summer – what needs to happen to keep outages away
Power utility Eskom is keeping load shedding in its forward planning for the summer months ahead, saying that scheduled outages could return if breakdowns exceed planned levels of 15,000MW.
However, such a scenario is not the group’s baseline scenario, and the utility is confident it can maintain its current outperformance.
Speaking at the group’s seasonal outlook briefing, Eskom chief executive Dan Marokane said that utility’s performance in winter was consistently above expectations and that there has been a notable structural shift in operations.
South Africa has gone more than 150 days without scheduled outages; the group has reduced its diesel bill by R10 billion year-on-year; and unplanned losses are at 12,400MW, compared to the 15,500MW “likely scenario” planned for winter.
The CEO said that the huge turnaround at the utility on the generation side has given a massive boost to morale at the company, but also in South Africa generally, with analysts and economists noting the positive impact on the economy.
However, he said that the company is not getting complacent and is erring on the side of caution with its outlook for summer (1 September 2024 to 31 March 2025).
While the group is celebrating more than 150 days of no load shedding in the country, the end of scheduled outages cannot be declared over, and the possibility of their return cannot be discounted in planning.
However, given the positive turn in generation over the past four (almost five) months, there have been two key changes in Eskom’s projections heading into summer:
The breakdown scenario has been revised to a best-case scenario of 13,000MW of outages to a worst-case of 15,000MW. This is a downward revision from 15,000MW and 17,000MW projected at the winter outlook earlier this year.
This impacts the second change, which is that the group expects no load shedding as long as breakdowns remain below 13,000MW.
If breakdowns exceed 15,000MW, load shedding could return – but capped at stage 2.
A scenario of no load shedding should be achievable, given that Eskom has managed to keep outages below the 13,000MW throughout winter.
In fact, the group’s performance vs the winter outlook is remarkable.
From a base case expecting 65 days of load shedding between stage 1 and 2 and R8.8 billion spent on diesel, Eskom delivered zero days of load shedding and only R3.5 billion spent on diesel.
For summer, Eskom is taking a conservative and cautious view, keeping the possibility of load shedding in the mix.
However, if its base case is that the current generation trends continue, and the summer months should be load-shedding-free,
Marokane said that the group is optimistic that it will be able to meet the base-case scenario. However, he flagged some summer variables that could impact the system. This includes:
- High risk of rain and its impact on the ecosystem. Rain levels and weather patterns are more extreme than before, the CEO noted.
- There is also a possibility of excessive heat, which could also impact the operations of the power stations.
The CEO said that the impact on losses is highly variable, thus Eskom is being overly cautious in its planning.
However, he said the recent performance of the fleet gives the group confidence that it has the headroom to deal with any crises that might happen.
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