Unhappy new year for petrol prices in South Africa
Month-end data for fuel prices in South Africa show that recoveries are squarely in the negative, pointing to a likely petrol price hike in the new year.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that all fuel types, except illuminating paraffin, are pushing under-recoveries.
Petrol prices show an under-recovery of between 8 and 15 cents per litre, while diesel is showing an under-recovery of 4 to 7 cents per litre.
e are the current projections:
- Petrol 93: increase of 15 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of 8 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 4 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of 7 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 10 cents per litre
Note: The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas.
Both the international oil price and the weaker rand are contributing to the under-recoveries for the most part, with the impact of the former less prominent in the diesel price calculation.
The rand is still feeling the sting of the US Fed’s stance on interest rates, where it is seeing a much slower climb-down and a softer landing.
Emerging markets in general were hit by the news, with analysts and economists taking a bearish stance.
There has been little else moving markets amid thin trades over Christmas and the related festive season, keeping the rand around R18.60/$ – a much weaker position than last month.
On the oil front, trades have also been thin due to the holiday season.
According to Bloomberg analysis, investors are assessing the outlook for 2025 while tracking developments in the Middle East.
“In the Middle East, Israel struck targets in Yemen that it said were controlled by Houthis, the last of the Iran-backed groups still fully engaged in the regional war that began 14 months ago.
“The rebels have been menacing shipping in the Red Sea, forcing tankers onto longer routes around southern Africa,” it said.
“Crude is on track for a modest annual loss, although trading has been confined in a narrow band since mid-October.
“There are widespread concerns the market may be oversupplied next year as China’s demand slows and global supplies expand, although traders remain cautious about potentially tighter US sanctions against flows from Iran under Donald Trump’s presidency.”
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