Eskom reveals load shedding outlook for 2025

 ·14 Jan 2025

Eskom said the average unplanned unavailability for this summer is about 11,500MW, which means no load-shedding is anticipated.

In 2024, Eskom reached a significant milestone by suspending load-shedding for nine months or 275 consecutive days.

By 13 January 2025, the national power utility has racked up 292 consecutive days with no load shedding.

South Africa has not experienced load-shedding since 26 March 2024, and the country has become accustomed to having a stable electricity supply.

Although this is the default in most countries, it is a luxury in South Africa, which has been plagued by rolling blackouts for fifteen years.

Eskom said this achievement resulted from its Generation Recovery Plan and enhanced maintenance protocols.

The power utility also used the December summer break to increase planned maintenance and improve the reliability of its generation fleet.

“The recovery plan significantly improved operational performance by reducing unplanned outages by 8.1% compared to last year,” it said.

Additionally, diesel savings of R16.20 billion year over year were recorded, which is about 65.1% less than the R24.89 billion spent during the same period last year.

Despite the good performance over the last nine months, Eskom’s 52-week outlook for 2025 still predicts a likely risk scenario where there will be a shortfall.

The outlook shows a “likely risk” scenario where Eskom will have a shortfall of over 2,000MW for most winter months.

However, Eskom explained that the unplanned unavailability assumption may be too aggressive in this forecast and will most likely not occur.

It said the average unplanned unavailability for this summer is about 11,500MW—about 1,500MW lower than the base case assumption for the Summer Outlook shared in August 2024. 

“At this level of unplanned unavailability, no load-shedding is anticipated,” Eskom told BusinessTech in response to questions.

It added that the heightened risk indicated on the longer-term outlook is based on the Summer Outlook assumption for unplanned unavailability of 13,000MW. 

“The unplanned unavailability assumption will be calibrated for the upcoming winter based on the summer performance,” it said.

Eskom’s official 52-Week Outlook is shown below. However, based on Eskom’s feedback, this is not the likely scenario.


Read: South Africa’s ‘big year’ starts this week

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