Bad news for anyone filling up with petrol in South Africa

Fuel price recoveries in South Africa are still on the wrong side of the scales, with petrol and diesel prices tipping towards an increase in March.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the end of the second week in February shows that both petrol and diesel prices are showing under-recoveries.

Petrol is showing an under-recovery of between 13 and 26 cents per litre, while diesel is showing a smaller under-recovery between 0 and 8 cents per litre.

While the data is still pointing to an increase, the numbers are far better than they were at the start of the month.

This means that the current trendline is moving in a far more positive direction for fuel pricing and could even see a turn before the end of the month—at the very least for diesel.

These are the projections at the end of week two:

• Petrol 93: increase of 26 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of 13 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 8 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of 0 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of 20 cents per litre

The more positive direction for pricing is largely thanks to the rand/dollar exchange holding steady in what has been an otherwise chaotic global market.

The rand is currently contributing to a 8 to 9 cents per litre over-recovery in the pricing.

Oil prices, meanwhile, are keeping recoveries subdued, accounting for the 9 to 34 cents per litre under-recovery in pricing, depending on fuel type and grade.

According to the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), markets were rattled this week as US President Donald Trump signed a flurry of executive orders targeting everything from alleged “human rights violations” in South Africa to pushing his global trade war with some of the US’ closest allies.

Despite the resultant uncertainty and disruptions, the rand was largely unchanged against the dollar—surprising, given that South Africa was targeted directly by Trump’s ire.

However, the BER pointed out that the steadfast rand was more as a result of dollar weakness than any inherent strength.

“Indeed, the local currency weakened by 0.7% against the euro and 1.3% against the pound sterling,” it said.

The weaker dollar was a result of Trump’s other big head-spinner: opening talks with Russia over the latter’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Reports that Trump was seemingly negotiating an end to the war with massive concessions to Russia, and without the input of Ukraine and the wider European Union, overshadowed high inflation data in the US and the US Fed’s talk of holding interest rates higher for longer.

This put the dollar on the back foot, leaving the rand to simmer at levels relatively stronger than in January 2025.

Trump’s antics also impacted global oil markets.

The BER noted that Brent crude prices slipped as optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised expectations of a further supply boost in an already well-supplied market.

George Pavel, General Manager at Naga.com Middle East, noted that oil prices had been carrying a risk premium attached to the ongoing conflict—including sanctions on Russia—and some of these tensions eased on talks of a possible resolution.

“Such developments could reduce the risks of supply disruptions and could weigh on prices. However, the uncertainty surrounding developments toward a permanent peace could fuel some volatility,” Pavel said.

The situation is compounded by concerns over President Trump’s potential tariff impositions, which have sparked fears of reduced global economic growth and dampened oil demand from other crude consumers, he added.

“Together, these factors could weigh on prices in the near term, creating additional uncertainty in the market.”

While the upheaval is bad news for oil futures, this should translate to better news for motorists, as lower oil prices are likely to feed through to better recoveries back home.

As things currently stand, though, motorists are still lined up for an increase at the pumps in March, with trends pointing to a more hopeful outcome.