Here is the expected petrol price for March

Mid-month data points to a much smaller petrol price hike in March 2025 than anticipated at the start of the month, but things could still go either way in the volatile global markets.

Data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) up to 14 February 2025 points to petrol prices increasing by between 10 and 23 cents per litre in March.

Diesel is showing a much more positive picture. An even smaller increase is expected, and there may even be a small price cut.

These are the projections at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: increase of 23 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of 10 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 4 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 3 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of 16 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, which means it is not currently possible to give the expected price in March.

It must be noted that the daily snapshots from the CEF are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

The CEF’s snapshots also do not consider the other changes that might impact the final price, such as slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes.

However, they provide a view of the ongoing balance in fuel price recoveries, which changes daily along with market conditions. They are an excellent indicator of where prices are headed.

Typically, if a month starts with fuel prices under-recovering, market conditions would have to improve significantly for this to change into a price cut in the next month.

These conditions are primarily the rand/dollar exchange rate and international oil prices. Based on these two factors, the fuel price is adjusted on the first Wednesday of every month.

In February, the rand remained surprisingly firm against the US dollar, while international product prices pulled back quite a bit, edging recoveries to a flatter position.

The rand is contributing to an over-recovery in prices of around 10 cents per litre, while global oil prices are still leading to an under-recovery between 7 and 32 cents per litre.

Rand resilience

The rand has proven to be quite resilient to the market upheaval of February 2025, largely driven by US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable governance style.

However, throughout the disruptions, the rand/dollar exchange rate hasn’t been hit too hard, with the rand trading at around R18.50 to the dollar.

While this is not a strong position, it is firmer relative to January, when the local unit moved in the other direction, hitting over R19/$.

Economists noted that the rand is volatile, swinging as high as R18.60 to the dollar by the end of last week before recovering to as low as R18.30 at the start of the new week.

Given this relative strength to January, the rand/dollar exchange rate contributes to an over-recovery in local fuel pricing.

Oil price uncertainty

Continuing the theme of markets being dominated by President Trump’s decisions, oil markets have also suffered due to his policies and political moves.

Oil markets have been subdued due to an expected glut in 2025, a combination of higher supplies and lower demand, particularly from China, the biggest consumer.

Trump has exacerbated this in two key ways. First, the US president has targeted countries like Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China with tariffs.

While some tariff calls from the White House have been put on hold, likely to be used as negotiation tools, the market remains uncertain.

The second Trump disruption has come from the US president’s closer relationship with Russia and intentions to end the conflict with Ukraine.

As a result, market analysts have had to consider the possible easing of sanctions on Russia, which would mean even more supply in a well-supplied market.

Oil prices are around $75 a barrel after hitting as high as $85 a barrel in the preceding months.

Brent crude ended the week higher at $75.20 a barrel, supported by the delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners and a more optimistic outlook from the International Energy Agency.

This is how the price changes will reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):