Here is the expected petrol price for April

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that South African motorists are in store for good news next month, with diesel and petrol showing sizeable over-recoveries.

Petrol prices show an over-recovery of between 82 and 96 cents per litre, while diesel prices show an over-recovery of about 90 cents per litre.

The over-recoveries are driven by a lower oil price relative to February 2025 and a firmer rand.

These are the projections at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 82 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 96 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 89 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 90 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 85 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price in April.

It must be noted that the daily snapshots from the CEF are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

This was seen for prices in March, where the mid-month projections were for an increase but ended up being a small cut as market conditions shifted.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

The CEF’s snapshots also do not consider the other changes that might impact the final price, such as slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes—or in the case of April, tax measures.

However, they provide a view of the ongoing balance in fuel price recoveries and are an excellent general indicator of where prices are headed.

The recoveries are mainly influenced by the cost of international petroleum products, pinned to the oil price, and the rand/dollar exchange rate.

For April, oil prices are trading at a much lower price relative to February, leading to a significant over-recovery. Meanwhile, the rand/dollar exchange is flatter, but it is still positive for South Africa.

Rand keeping up

The rand has been trending lower on average since January, peaking slightly at the start of March.

The local unit has been weathering a storm of global uncertainty in markets after US President Donald Trump launched a global trade war against America’s allies.

This involved implementing significant tariffs on countries like Canada, Mexico, the EU and China.

While the tariff war is very real and has major implications for the countries involved, in many respects, the markets view it as a negotiation tool rather than an actual salvo.

Given this context, markets have eased some more extreme bear positions and pared back the expected impact on inflation.

This has led to some forecasts again anticipating more interest rate cuts in the US this year, weakening the dollar and boosting other currencies, like the rand.

However, the situation remains volatile and unpredictable.

Locally, the rand has largely shrugged off South Africa’s more pressing issues. There was limited response to the 2025 budget and political uncertainty about it passing.

The return of load shedding—three times in the past month—has also had a negligible impact, with most of these factors long priced in.

Overall, there has been no extreme movement in the rand, with the balance tipped in South Africa’s favour relative to February. This is contributing a 6/7 cents per litre to the over-recovery in fuel.

Oil prices fall

After remaining fairly range-bound since the end of 2024, oil prices saw significant declines in March, even dropping below the previous resistance level of $70 a barrel.

Prices have come under pressure due to lower demand forecasts due to global market uncertainty, seasonal patterns, and economic performances in key markets, as well as the increase in the supply of OPEC+ production.

Arguably the biggest impact on the oil price has come from Trump’s trade war, which has renewed trade tensions between the United States and the European Union.

Markets are now factoring in a potential economic slowdown in the region, which will dull demand.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a supply surplus, which is only set to deepen as the trade war escalates.

According to Bloomberg analysis, the United States has exerted some counterpressure by tightening sanctions against Iran and Russia.

However, this has not been enough to reverse the significant price drop.

The oil price decline is contributing to most of the over-recovery in South African fuel pricing, covering 76-89 cents per litre.

Expected pump prices for petrol and diesel

Factoring in the over-recoveries above, motorists can expect a sizeable cut to fuel prices in April, although this will be slightly undercut by tax hikes.

While Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana elected to keep the general fuel levy and Road Accident Fund levy unchanged for 2025, the carbon fuel tax levy will be hiked by 3 cents per litre.

This is how the price changes will reflect at the pumps, including the expected tax change (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):