What to expect for petrol prices in South Africa next week

Petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin prices in South Africa are set to be cut next week despite the rand’s heightened volatility.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund shows a 19 cents per litre decrease in petrol 95 and an 18 cents per litre drop in petrol 93.

Diesel prices are also expected to drop by 37 cents per litre, while illuminating paraffin should decrease by 28 cents per litre.

All metrics show an overrecovery in prices, driven primarily by lower international product prices, as the exchange rate continues to pressure prices.

The rand has remained incredibly volatile over the last month due to international and local developments. However, the rand is now pointing in the right direction.

With the increase set for next Wednesday, 7 May, the likelihood of a decrease remains high, leading to the second straight cut in fuel prices.

In April, the 95 petrol price cut dropped by 72 cents per litre, which took a litre of inland 95 petrol to R21.62.

The expected decreases for next week can be seen below: 

• Petrol 93: decrease of 18 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 19 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 37 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 37 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 28 cents per litre

The rand has faced an increasingly challenging month after it hit a record high of R19.93/$. The rand was severely impacted by the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump and fears over the GNU.

However, the rand returned to its forecasts of R18.60/$ for the quarter. Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop said the rand weakened after fears that the pro-business DA would exit the GNU.

The DA’s position in the GNU was under severe scrutiny after it did not pass Budget 2.0, which included a proposed VAT hike from 15% to 16% by 2026. This came after the first Budget was postponed due to conflicts within the GNU.

Budget 2.0 passed without the DA’s support, and non-GNU members needed to pass the budget in parliament.

However, following widespread criticism of the tax increase, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana effectively withdrew Budget 2.0, stopping the VAT increase.

The DA also defeated Godongwana and parliament’s leaders in court over the passing of the fiscal framework.

The ruling by the Western Cape High Court stopped the VAT increase to 15.5% on 1 May 2025, as the rise would have still gone ahead as per the VAT Act, even though the Budget was withdrawn.

South Africa’s two largest parties have since agreed to work closely together, which should ensure that Budget 3.0 passes through parliament.

The rand is also set to benefit from the improved relationship between the USA and China after the two countries effectively started a trade war. The improvement should boost the global economy.

However, Bishop noted that the rand remains highly volatile and susceptible to global financial market movements and local politics.

Oil prices

The international oil price nosedived in April due to fears that Trump’s tariffs would result in a global recession.

The trade war between the two largest economies also led to expectations of lower oil demand.

With the improved relationship between the US and China, Maria Agustina Patti from Exness said that crude oil futures rebounded.

China’s announcement that it would evaluate a proposal for talks with Washington raised hopes of de-escalation following increased tariffs.

“Given the potential impact of trade tension on global economic activity and energy demand, the prospect of reduced tensions supported a shift in outlook for crude,” said Patti.

Other geopolitical developments added to the momentum, with Trump’s renewed threat of secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers heightening supply concerns and pushing up prices.

“However, the market remains cautious ahead of key decisions from the OPEC group,” said Patti.

“Some OPEC+ members are advocating for another round of output increases, while Saudi Arabia could be unwilling to support prices.”

Increased supply from the group could add more pressure on prices, which have declined since the start of the year.

Traders will also monitor any new economic data release in the US and China for clues on demand levels.