Rand to come crashing down after Trump’s policies are explained: analysts

The rand’s current rally is expected to come to sharp stop within the coming months, a Reuters analyst poll showed – with recent gains expected to be curtailed as soon as the economic policies of U.S. President Donald Trump become clearer.
According to the median forecasts of strategists in the poll (taken between 2-6 February 2017), the Brazilian real, South African rand and Russian rouble are all set to give up gains in the coming six months.
While the Russian rouble is only set to shed 3% to 60.90 roubles per dollar, the real and rand are expected to be the hardest hit with the real expected to lose almost 6% to 3.29 real per dollar, while the rand is forecast to give up 7% to R14.25.
“We are not really seeing any dramatic shift in policy yet from the U.S. that impacts emerging markets in a negative way,” said Peter Attard Montalto, an economist at Nomura in London.
“But that should come through (in) the next couple of months when we get the U.S. budget coming together.”
João Pedro Resende, an economist at São Paulo-based bank Itaú Unibanco, also highlighted upcoming elections in Europe as a potentially risky event for the rand, especially in France, where candidate Marine Le Pen promises to leave the currency union.
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