Zuma stronger than ever – looking for any way to get Gordhan out: analyst
President Jacob Zuma is stronger than ever – and is looking for any avenue to get finance minister Pravin Gordhan out of office, according to economic analyst, Peter Attard Montalto.
According to a research note penned by the Nomura analyst, having captured security, police and prosecuting structures – and having his recent scandals buried by ANC party structures – Zuma is at his strongest point since the sacking of Nlanhla Nene in December 2015.
Montalto noted that Zuma’s presidency has come down to “tenderpreneurs” – who are supporting the president – and the “anti-tenderpreneurs”, behind finance minister Pravin Gordhan.
Gordhan was reappointed as finance minister following the unexpected axing of former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene by Zuma – a move which sent South Africa’s market crashing, wiping as much as R500 billion from the economy.
The ill-conceived moved put Zuma under scrutiny, limiting his freedom in hiring and firing within his Cabinet as he sees fit.
Like Nene, Gordhan has implemented policies in Treasury which limits the unchecked spending of money, putting a cap on the ‘bottomless’ well of money that many state-owned companies had relied on to bail them out.
Speculation is rife that this has put tension on the relationship between Gordhan and the president, who has many known “friends” in top positions at SOEs.
According to Montalto, “Zuma is hunting for any route to remove Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan – which should be hard but not impossible.”
The Sunday Times reported this weekend that the Hawks investigative unit was preparing for the “imminent” arrest of Gordhan, on alleged charges of espionage, relating to an investigation into a so-called ‘rogue spy unit’ at SARS – an investigation supported by Zuma and initated by his SARS placement, commissioner Tom Monyane.
Reports on the matter said that following Gorhan’s arrest, Zuma would move to reshuffle Cabinet.
“All sides have since denied there is anything going on‚ with the Presidency also denying any imminent reshuffle,” said Montalto.
“However‚ it is assumed that any arrests should take place after the 3 August local elections so as not to disrupt ANC chances then.”
“Pravin Gordhan has to successfully defend against every attack; President Zuma ultimately has to win only once,” he said.
The analyst said further that market indicators and the potential scuppering of the economy isn’t a guaranteed deterrent for Zuma’s antics.
“There are many around President Zuma who dismiss the risks of market dislocation and of downgrades‚ see investors and ratings agencies as ‘counter-revolutionary’ and think the President should be pursuing a more inward-focusing agenda instead.”
“In other words‚ market forces are not a total deterrent,” he said.
More on Zuma and the ANC
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