Zuma still holds power over the ANC – but the cracks are starting to show

President Jacob Zuma still holds much power over the ANC – but he has suffered a few setbacks which may weaken his faction’s political standing ahead of the party’s elective conference.

This is according to research analyst at Nomura, Peter Attard Montalto, who says that the structures of power Zuma has built around himself are being shaken in a number of high-profile cases.

Nomura holds the view that the ANC is currently  split into two camps: the pro-Zuma camp, and the reformers. The group estimates that Zuma supporters make up 60% of the National Executive, and thus have control, but there is enough resistance within the party that there is a stalemate.

From this position, Attard Montalto has told investors that South Africa is unlikely to see any shift in power within the ANC over the short- to medium-term, as election results and subsequent comments from the ruling party show that Zuma will stay in power until at least the end of 2017.

However, while Zuma finds himself in a strong position, the cracks are definitely starting to show.

“The foundations of Zuma’s power comes from his access to so-called security networks that include the state security services and the ANC’s parallel security structures – but also cadre deployment of loyalists into key roles,” the analyst said.

“Over time, sufficient knocks may force a real shift in power dynamics within the NEC and in turn into the coalitions formed in an elective conference.”

According to Nomura, Zuma – and his faction – has suffered several defeats, which may add up over time. These are the hits being dealt:

1. Two key advocates that are Zuma loyalists in the National Prosecution Authority have been suspended.

“Nomgcobo Jiba and Lawrence Mrwebi were found by a court to have brought the legal profession into disrepute for decisions on not undertaking prosecutions.

Zuma’s control over the NPA is an important component in keeping the corruption charges he faces at arm’s length. There are various appeals ongoing to have them reinstated.

The problem for the NPA was such a court ruling disbars it from being an advocate and only advocates can serve in key positions in the NPA,” Attard Montalto said.

2. Zuma loyalist Hlaudi Motsoneng’s grasp of the SABC has been blown open

“The account of state broadcaster SABC COO Hlaudi Motsoeneng is long and complex and something we have avoided commenting on before.

Motsoeneng is seen as a Zuma loyalist and through the Minister in charge and the SABC board has been continually kept in place despite various court cases and media exposure about his qualifications and his propriety to hold the post.

A court has now ruled he was not adequately qualified for the post and should be removed.However, this has not happened, but further court action may, eventually, force SABC’s hand.”

3. The Hawks boss leading the fight against Pravin Gordhan was not properly appointed

“Hawks head Berning Ntlemeza has become well known for his involvement in the questioning of Pravin Gordhan.

It has now emerged that he was improperly appointed without full authorisation from parliament and Police Minister Nathi Nhleko has had to ask parliament to censure him to then officially appoint Ntlemeza.”

4. SAA chair and friend of Zuma, Dudu Myeni will only be around for a year

“The Treasury had a win with the new SAA board and only a one-year reappointment of Dudu Myeni.”

5. Divided Cosatu has not backed a clear successor for ANC leadership

“The inability of the union movement within COSATU to back Zuma wholeheartedly has been viewed as a top committee split between Zuma’s loyalists and those loyal to Cyril Ramaphosa.

Indeed, NUMSA has split off today to back Ramaphosa on its own. The union movement is significantly weaker than it was before Polokwane in 2007 (or Mangaung in 2012), but will still be an important force at the margin in next year’s elective conference.”

According to Nomura, these knocks form part of the ongoing ‘war’ within the ANC – though it says the endpoint remains “problematic” as long as Zuma retains control over the NEC and as long as an early elective conference remains a near logistical impossibility.

“However, if there is some erosion of power in a true sense, and factional coalitions form early ahead of an elective conference, this could place more constraints on President Zuma,” the group said.

“We do not believe this has happened yet, but could be a topic for the middle of next year.”

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