The Western Cape has a plan for a total blackout

The Western Cape has a plan in place for if state power utility Eskom fails further and there is a national grid collapse.
During a weekly consultation with higher-ups of the provincial government, Colin Deiner, the chief director of the disaster management and fire/rescue services, detailed the province’s blackout contingency plan.
At the outset, Deiner said the plan is put together in the event of a worst-case scenario.
“Our job is to protect the province. We look at what is the worst thing that could happen, and then we plan around that,” Deiner said.
He said that for the time being, there is a low probability of a total blackout.
The main priorities of the Provincial Disaster Management Centre (PDMC) and its partners are to save lives and protect the safety of citizens.
The province’s premier Alan Winde said it is best to be overprepared for any eventuality than be caught off guard. This sentiment has been shared by businesses at large, with MTN’s CEO recently stating that despite it (collapse) not being highly probable, one must be prepared.
Real estate intelligence group, Cushman & Wakefield Broll (CWB), said that a complete power grid shutdown was once considered impossible in South Africa.
However, due to the increasing frequency and unpredictability of load shedding, many businesses are now being forced to create contingency plans in case of such an event.
This suggests that the instability of the power supply has grown, making it necessary for companies to prepare for worst-case scenarios.
Deiner said that a potential blackout puts the area at risk of severe energy constraints, infrastructure damage, industrial social unrest and more.
If the worst were to occur, authorities, among them Eskom and disaster and emergency management officials, would follow the outlined process and return the power grid to operation.
According to the province, should there be a complete blackout, the Provincial Disaster Management Centre (PDMC) has several priority areas such as water, transport, health, emergency services, law enforcement and fuel security.
The PDMC’s broader preparations include the following:
- A major electricity disruption contingency plan;
- Ensuring standby procedures are in place;
- Low activation and monitoring of the impact;
- Institutional arrangements in place – through an electricity disruption task team;
- Local disaster management centres are placed on high alert to assess risks;
- Radio communications.
Deiner said that the public should also prepare themselves adequately, knowing relevant load shedding schedules, ensuring they have stock of chronic medication and making sure that security systems still work during outages.
Eskom COO Jan Oberholzer said at a previous provincial gathering that Eskom has endeavoured to be open and honest with the people of South Africa around the electricity constraints.
He noted that the power utility’s generation capacity had declined drastically due to its maintenance plan not yielding the expected results.
He then advised the Western Cape government to develop:
- An integrated resource plan, and:
- A demand-side management programme
These two initiatives have since been included in the province’s energy plan.
To ensure independent power generation, the province has also invested heavily in renewable projects, including the recent allocation of R1.1 billion from the provincial treasure to ensure the province has secure energy.
How it would play out
2021 from Eskom’s national control manager Gav Hurford shows that a national blackout would have three stages: the trigger, the fallout and the restart.
Load shedding is used to reduce and stave away a blackout; however, a massive unanticipated breakdown or widespread transmission faults could cause a total shutdown.
This could last anything from days to weeks, said Eskom. Threatening security, water supplies, critical infrastructure and more.
Following a period of fallout, Eskom’s ‘black-start facilities that can operate independently from the grid will be fired up and gradually return other stations back to service.
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