Ramaphosa warns of storm brewing for South Africa

President Cyril Ramaphosa says that South Africa needs to accelerate its transition to a cleaner economy, warning that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense while the country’s biggest trading partners are shopping around for ‘greener’ pastures.

However, the president’s words also come at a time when his administration is looking to shift the goalposts on ‘transitional’ funding while keeping South Africa more reliant on coal and fossil fuels for longer.

Writing his weekly letter to the nation, Ramaphosa said that severe storms and extreme weather left many parts of the country—especially in the Western Cape—battered.

While these events have a devastating impact on human lives, health and safety, they also carry massive risks for economic activity—the fallout of which risks carrying the human cost even higher.

The president said that the extreme weather is evidence of the effects of climate change worsening, with heatwaves, severe storms, flooding and even uncharacteristic cold sweeping through parts of the country over the past few years.

“Agriculture, tourism, mining and manufacturing are just some of the areas of economic activity that could be adversely affected by climate change. Then there are the equally dire effects on water security, food security, public infrastructure, human settlements, health care and education,” the president said.

“The increasing frequency of disasters impacts public finances. On the one hand, disasters affect economic growth and lower tax revenues. On the other hand, they require increased expenditures on disaster relief, health care, and other forms of social support for affected communities.”

These realities mean that South Africa has to accelerate its journey to being a greener and cleaner economy so that it can adapt to climate change and mitigate its impact.

Ramaphosa said that the carbon intensity of the South African economy has become unsustainable.

“The world is moving towards greener economies. These include a number of our major trading partners, who are taking measures to decarbonise that will in the long run affect the competitiveness of South Africa’s exports to these markets,” he said.

As a signatory to the Paris Agreement to Combat Climate Change, South Africa also has an obligation to reduce emissions and make a fair contribution to the global climate change effort, he said.

He pointed to South Africa’s Just Energy Transition and Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme as two measure the country has taken to accomplish this.

The Just Energy Transition Investment Plan sets out a plan to drive huge investments in the electricity grid, green hydrogen, electric vehicles, economic diversification and skills development.

The plan has drawn keen interest from developed nations, with over R170 billion in funding committed to the rollout, provided South Africa can stick to its goals.

However, the plan has hit a snag: South Africa is less eager to move away from carbon-intensive energy generation, at least in the medium term.

This is because the country is still heavily reliant on Eskom’s coal-generation fleet for power—and the country cannot risk throwing itself back into a national power crisis of extreme shortfalls for the sake of hitting climate targets.

Recently, members of Ramaphosa’s administration reportedly entered into talks to revise an agreement with the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) to extend deadlines for the decommissioning of three coal-fired power stations, according to Bloomberg.

If negotiations prove unsuccessful with the group associated with the World Bank, this could impact the first round of approved funding by the CIF, which according to its website amounts to R8.4 billion.

If South Africa fails to meet its wider targets to decarbonise, billions more could be at risk of being lost.

Former environment minister Barbara Creecy assured Parliament last year that South Africa can still achieve its nationally determined contributions goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 while delaying the decommissioning of Eskom’s coal-powered stations.

Ramaphosa said that South Africa needs to be smarter with its spending—using fiscal policy to support its response to the shocks of climate change and to advance the just transition to a more inclusive, resilient and sustainable economy.

However, he also added that developed economies have an obligation to support countries like South Africa in taking on the fight.

“We need to work with social partners and development institutions to marshal investment into green economy initiatives and secure finance for local adaptation and mitigation efforts. We need to raise funds to support industrial policy that facilitates the just energy transition,” he said.

“It is essential that countries with developed economies fulfil their financial commitments to support the climate actions of countries that are most affected, including making funds available for the loss and damage that these countries experience due to climate change.”

Read: South Africa wants to shift the R8.4 billion goalposts