Ghost of load shedding still haunting South Africa
South Africa’s biggest risk for 2025 remains an energy supply shortage—despite the progress made on load shedding.
This is according to the Global Risks Report of 2025 by the World Economic Forum, which takes data from the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025 (GRPS) that captures insights from over 900 experts worldwide.
The report looks at global risks through three timeframes to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities.
The report also gives country-specific risks, with South Africa’s results showing that the energy supply shortage is still the main risk facing South Africa.
Although South Africa has not seen load shedding in almost 300 days, there is still a belief that the country is still at risk of rolling blackouts.
That said, amidst the rise in private generation and Eskom’s operational improvements, it is unlikely that the country will experience the heightened level of load shedding that was seen in 2022 and 2023.
Eskom CEO Dan Marokane did warn that an inadequate tariff path in the future constrain Eskom’s ability to expand infrastructure and could result in further reliance on government support beyond March 2026.
Eskom has requested substantial price hikes through to 2027, which will effectively see prices climb 66% over the period:
- 36.15% on April 1, 2025;
- 11.91% on April 1, 2026;
- 9.1% on April 1, 2027.
Second, on the list for South Africa is unemployment or lack of economic opportunity, which is hardly surprising given South Africa’s unemployment rate of 30%.
Third on the list is a water supply shortage, with taps across the country, mainly Johannesburg, running dry over the last year.
President Cyril Ramaphosa said that addressing the nation’s water crisis is a top priority for the government. He said that the water shortages could result in a crisis that is worse than load shedding.
Poverty and inequality come fourth in the list, with South Africa often cited as one of the most unequal societies in the world.
South Africa’s Gini coefficient, which measures the deviation of the distribution of income within a country, is the highest in the world at 0.63, indicating that the nation is the most unequal in the world.
The fifth highest risk is an economic downturn, such as a recession or stagnation.
South Africa looks set to escape a recession, with estimates showing that the country is expected to grow between 1.7% and 2.2% this year.
This is expected to be followed by improved growth in the coming years following what many have deemed “a lost decade.”
The top five risks for South Africa:
- Energy supply shortage
- Unemployment or lack of economic opportunity
- Water supply shortage
- Poverty and inequality (wealth, income)
- Economic downturn (e.g. recession, stagnation)
Globally
The WEF said that the global outlook is increasingly fractured across geopolitical, environmental, societal, economic and technological domains.
“Over the last year, we have witnessed the expansion and escalation of conflicts, a multitude of extreme weather events amplified by climate change, widespread societal and political polarization, and
continued technological advancements accelerating the spread of false or misleading information.”
“Optimism is limited as the danger of miscalculation or misjudgment by political and military actors is high. We seem to be living in one of the most divided times since the Cold War, and this is reflected in the results of the GRPS, which reveal a bleak outlook across all three time horizons – current, short-term and long-term.”
52% anticipate an unsettled global outlook over the short term, the next two years. This only gets worse over the 10-year timeframe, when 62% of respondents expect stormy or turbulent times.
“This long-term outlook has remained similar to the survey results last year, in terms of its level
of negativity, reflecting respondent scepticism that current societal mechanisms and governing
institutions are capable of navigating and mending the fragility generated by the risks we face today.”
State-based armed conflict is now seen as the number one current risk by 23% of respondents followed by extreme weather events.
Looking into the two- to ten-year risks, extreme weather events remain a major concern.
Over the next two years, misinformation and disinformation are seen as the biggest risks to the country followed by extreme weather events.
Over the next ten years, extreme weather events take the top spot followed by biodiversity loss ecosystem loss and critical changes to earth systems.
Read: Massive win for billionaire Johann Rupert’s ‘golden child’
Loading ...
