South Africa without Ramaphosa as president

A new poll from the Social Research Foundation (SRF) shows that the ANC stands to lose significant support without Cyril Ramaphosa as president.

Without Ramaphosa at the helm, the party could potentially be smaller than the Democratic Alliance, the results showed.

The SRF investigated how South Africa’s potential political landscape could look should the Government of National Unity (GNU) collapse and a successful motion of no confidence be brought against President Cyril Ramaphosa.

The question has gained some prominence over the past week after deep divisions emerged within the GNU, with parties like the ANC seeking to restructure the coalition and potentially push the DA out.

While the ANC has assured that the GNU will continue without the DA, a reformed coalition would not have a strong majority without buy-in from one of the other larger parties (EFF or MK).

If a reformed GNU looked the same as a the parties who voted to pass the budget, it would only have the support of 202 votes out of 400, making for a very narrow majority, and potential for chaos and upsets in the National Assembly.

This includes a possible motion for a no-confidence vote on the president.

The SRF surveyed over 1,000 demographically and geographically representative registered voters to determine how they would vote if Ramaphosa were to be recalled:

If Ramaphosa were ousted, a new national election would see the ANC’s support drop to 22%. This is, however, based on a turnout ratio of 58%. 

Notably, this would see the ANC’s national support drop below the DA’s, whose support would increase from the current level of 25% to 28%. 

Jacob Zuma-led MK would also see its support rise to 15%, while the EFF’s support would be at 9%.

Notably, the IFP would actually see support drop to 2% should Ramaphosa be removed, while the PA remains flat. 

Notably, the largest gain would be seen in the ‘free agents’ category, which would rise 14% to 19% following the election.

Although the SRF said the report is not a forecast of a future South African election, its polls leading into the 2024 elections were very close to the actual results, where the ANC’s support dropped below 40%. 

The report shows how important Ramaphosa is to the ANC’s continued support base.

Importantly, it raises the question of what ANC support will be once Ramaphosa’s leadership of the party ends after the 2027 ANC elective conference.

Why the drop in support

Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop said that the sharp drop in voter support for the ANC comes on the back of a lack of economic growth and the rise of populist reforms. 

The recent tensions between the ANC and DA have also caused a large drop in the rand on the back of weakened investor sentiment. 

A long-term trend in South African public opinion has been the unpopularity of the ANC’s populist agenda.

The SRF said that instead of adopting a more economic growth focused policy agenda, the ANC appears to be pushing the same path that led to its historic loss of vote share in 2024. 

This includes signing into law things like National Health Insurance in the weeks leading up to the election—which many said hurt the party at the polls.

Post-election, Ramaphosa signed more controversial bills into law, sidestepping GNU interests. This includes the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act, as well as the Expropriation Act.

The Expropriation Act is of particular concern, as it introduced specific scenarios where land could be expropriated for “nil compensation”.

Another poll by the SRF showed that if the national government expropriated large amounts of land without paying the owners compensation, it would harm investment and confidence among investors. 

The SRF found that roughly two-thirds of South African voters are opposed to the policy of expropriation without compensation. 

Specifically, voters do not trust the government to expropriate property; they do not think it’s a good economic idea, and they believe it will harm investment levels in the country. 

The SRF said that the findings are in line with its previous research that highlighted that most South Africans are hostile to racial nationalist or economically populist policies. 

The foundation suggested that the disconnect between the policy agenda of the government and the preferences of voters was a primary factor in the collapse of the ANC’s vote share in 2024. 

Notably, 54% of ANC supporters strongly disagreed that expropriation without compensation would not harm investment or confidence among foreign investors.