D-Day for South Africa officially set
South Africa is set to hear the United States’ decision on whether or not it will remain included in the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) next week.
Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Park Tau, has confirmed that the decision will be delivered on 2 November 2026.
The minister said that South Africa is ready for the outcome, whatever it may be, assuring that the country’s economy will remain stable and exporters will continue trading, regardless.
South Africa will have 60 days to address concerns raised by the United States before any suspension, full or partial, could take effect, he said.
That said, Tau expressed confidence that the United States will respond favourably to South Africa’s trade offers made during negotiations over the past year, including those related to AGOA.
He added that continued trade and partnership between the United States is in the best interests of both countries, and that South Africa will continue to engage.
AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products.
This is in addition to the more than 5,000 products eligible for duty-free access under the Generalised System of Preferences programme.
AGOA was enacted in 2000, and South Africa has been the largest beneficiary of the programme over the last 25 years, accounting for 54% of all AGOA-related exports to the US.
Over that time, the programme has underpinned immense economic activity, with economic modelling suggesting that the loss of AGOA would put between 125,000 and 576,000 direct and indirect jobs at risk.
According to Aluma Capital Chief Economist, Frederick Mitchell, losing the preferential access would “decimate industrial hubs that have taken three decades to build”.
Others, including Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo, are less bleak about the situation.
In a note this week, Sihlobo said that the loss of AGOA would add a 3.4% tariff onto the 12.5% tariffs the United States already has in effect against South Africa.
While this is a worse-off situation, it is still much better than the 30% tariff position the country was in when the “liberation day” tariffs were effected in 2025.
According to Sihlobo, South Africa’s exports to the United States during that time remained resilient despite the tariff, suggesting the same would be true without AGOA.
“One could argue that, while this would be a challenging path, it would not necessarily be as catastrophic as we have faced in the past,” Sihlobo said.
Government is working around it
According to Tau, South Africa has been working to secure a better trade deal with the United States—including AGOA—but has also been diversifying its export markets.
In September, Tau met US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer in Washington, DC, to discuss bilateral trade relations and the future of AGOA.
South Africa and the US have close trade ties, he said, making continued relations important.
“More than 600 American companies operate here, supporting around 134,600 jobs,” he said.
“In the last year alone, more than $5 billion investment commitments have been made by US companies, demonstrating increased investor confidence in SA as an investment destination.”
He added that South Africa supplies 12 of the 50 minerals the US considers critical and is ready to partner with the US to beneficiate them at source.
“We have tabled practical proposals through the proper channels,” he said, adding that South Africa remains open to practical arrangements to grow trade and investment between the two countries.
While South Africa is continuing to engage the US to stabilise trade and investment relations, Tau said the country is also pursuing opportunities in other markets.
This includes the implementation of the Cabinet-approved Industrial Development Strategy and the “Butterfly Strategy”.
Through these, South Africa is opening markets across the African Continental Free Trade Area, India, SADC, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, MERCOSUR and China.
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