Crime surges in South Africa – with murder, assault and vandalism getting worse
Stats SA has published the latest Victims of Crime (VoC) survey, showing that violent crime levels have escalated – and thousands of crimes continue to go unreported in South Africa.
Of particular note is that the experience of violent crime and damage to property has shot up over the past 12 months, nearly doubling the case of assault and rising almost 38% in the case of murder.
However, it must be noted the data presented in the VoC is difficult to parse, given the Department of Police’s tardiness in publishing the country’s official crime statistics.
The department’s data reporting is lagging by two quarters, leaving the VoC lacking crucial context.
Regardless, the VoC shows that South Africa’s crime statistics are likely far worse than what the Police Department (will eventually) report, with high levels of unreported crimes in the country.
South Africa’s official crime statistics are based on incidents or crimes reported at police stations and crimes discovered by the police. This means the data can only reflect the crimes that go through the official process, leaving many crimes unaccounted for.
The VoC Survey, on the other hand, looks at crimes through the victim’s experience, including the significant number of crimes that go unreported in South Africa.
In lieu of official crime statistics, the VoC indicates that crime levels in South Africa have surged.
The survey tracks the experience of crime by both households and individuals, including changes over 12 month and five year periods.
| Household Crime (12 months) | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housebreaking/Burglary | 1,080,000 | 1,130,000 | +4.6% |
| Home Robbery | 195,000 | 209,000 | +7.2% |
| Assault | 68,000 | 129,000 | +89.7% |
| Theft of Motor Vehicle | 73,000 | 87,000 | +19.2% |
| Damage to Dwellings | 65,000 | 129,000 | +96.5% |
| Murder | 16,000 | 22,000 | +37.5% |
| Sexual Offences | 11,000 | 22,000 | +100% |
When looking at the data over a five-year period, the survey flags massive increases in certain crime categories and small declines in others.
| Household Crime (5-year) | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housebreaking | 2,300,000 | 2,600,000 | +12% |
| Home Robbery | 465,000 | 459,000 | -1% |
| Assault | 219,000 | 257,000 | +17% |
| Theft of Motor Vehicle | 209,000 | 222,000 | +6% |
| Damage to Dwellings | 152,000 | 219,000 | +44% |
| Murder | 57,000 | 67,000 | +18% |
| Sexual Offences | 49,000 | 47,000 | -4% |
Broadly, serious crimes are almost always reported to the police – but as categories move towards theft or even common assault, incidents are severely under-reported, implying that the SAPS reported figures are massively understated.
For 2024, the VoC pointed to 100% of households that experience a murder in the country reporting this to the police – so this is one crime category that is likely to most align with official data.
Worryingly, the survey points to a massive increase in murders—approximately 22,000 in the past 12 months, an increase of 38% from 16,000 murders at the time of the previous survey.
In addition to the headline categories of crime experienced by households, the VoC also looks at crimes experienced by individuals. These include:
| Individual Crime (12 months) | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Theft of personal property | 1,228,000 | 1,324,000 | +7.8% |
| Street robbery | 483,000 | 443,000 | -8.2% |
| Consumer fraud | 314,000 | 367,000 | +16.9% |
| Psychological violence | 265,000 | 315,000 | +18.9% |
| Assault | 263,000 | 295,000 | +12.2% |
| Hijacking | 114,000 | 81,000 | -28.9% |
| Sexual Offences | 30,000 | 52,000 | +73.3% |
Notably, there were significant declines tracked in hijackings over the past 12 months.
When looking at the data over a five-year period, the survey again flags massive increases in certain crime categories and small declines in others.
| Individual Crime (5-year) | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Theft of personal property | 2,800,000 | 2,800,000 | +0.2% |
| Street robbery | 1,000,000 | 1,100,000 | +7% |
| Consumer fraud | 600,000 | 700,000 | +16% |
| Assault | 515,000 | 650,000 | +16% |
| Hijacking | 280,000 | 287,000 | +2.5% |
| Sexual Offences | 112,000 | 116,000 | +3.6% |
Unlike the more serious violent crimes, crimes in these categories go largely unreported, with sexual offences and hijackings the most likely to make their way to police desks (65%-67%), but even this shows that many of these crimes are simply not counted in the official statistics.
Official crime stats nowhere to be seen
The Victims of Crime Survey is the most recent indicator of crime levels in South Africa, with the Department of Police having not published any crime stats for the last two quarters.
The department skipped presenting the fourth quarter 2023/24 crime stats ahead of the 2024 elections, and the Democratic Alliance (DA) revealed earlier in August that the Q1 2024/25 stats have also not yet been authorised by Cabinet for publication.
The party said it has put in an urgent request for the data to be published.
“Access to the national and provincial crime statistics is a vital resource for lawmakers, stakeholders, and policymakers to monitor the performance of our law enforcement agencies.
“All South Africans have a right to be informed on the successes and failures of their police services and whether their interventions are yielding positive results.
“Starved of access to these reports, civil society and parliamentarians alike are left in the dark and without a critical tool to hold the Minister and the SAPS to account,” said DA MP Lisa Schickerling.
Read: Hijackers have a new target in South Africa – and it’s not your car
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