Pain for braai lovers in South Africa

South Africans will find it a bit more expensive to host a braai right now, with food inflation hitting prices for key ingredients.

Maize prices have shot up significantly since last year—meaning pap may have to be shelved—while greens are also showing some price jumps, so the sides may have to be more selective.

More positively, meat prices—the core of any good braai—are lower than they were a year ago, and beef producers, in particular, are optimistic about the year ahead.

This is according to the latest Braai index, conceptualised by Bloomberg and compiled using the latest data from the Pietermaritzburg Equity Justice and Dignity (PMGEJD) for January 2025.

The index looks at the food items used in the preparation of braai, and tracks the movement in prices of this specific basket month-on-month and year-on-year.

This includes meat (Beef, wors, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green pepper) and others (samp, maize, curry powder, salt).

To compile its survey, the PMBEJD’s data collectors track food prices on the shelves of 47 supermarkets and 32 butcheries that target the low-income market in the greater areas of Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town, Pietermaritzburg, Springbok in the far northwest and the far northeastern town of Mtubatuba.

The month-on-month index showed prices for a braai were up 2.4% in January, while year-on-year, prices were up at a similar rate at 2.2%.

Month-on-month index change [+2.4%]

Year-on-year index change [+2.2%]

Meat prices

While the overall cost of a braai appears to be rising, beef producers say that the pressures that hit the industry in 2024 are dissipating and that should reflect in both the lowering of production costs and shelf prices.

The past few years were marred by load shedding, impacting the cost of producing meat, and then a subsequent rise in the cost of living, which cut consumer spending as households came under strain.

However, the end of 2024 saw things start to turn. Consumer spending picked up as interest rates came down, and load shedding is largely out of the picture (barring temporary setbacks in early 2025).

According to Gert Blignaut, CEO of Beefmaster Group, the prospects for 2025 are also brighter due to new export markets opening up, such as the opening of the Saudi Arabian market.

“We suspect that going into 2025, the consumer may start spending more. Possible further interest rate cuts, combined with the current outlook for the year, may mean we could be in a for a better year,” Blignaut said.

However, challenges do remain.

Climate issues may bring problems in the middle of the year, and wider markets risk higher inflation due to geopolitics and US-led trade wars.

According to agricultural economist from Agbiz, Wandile Sihlobo, a mid-summer drought in 2024 negatively impacted the agricultural sector leading to extensive crop losses.

Climate experts at the start of this year warned about uncertainty regarding weather cycles, making forecasting and the prediction of rains, difficult.

Economists generally anticipate inflation to creep higher from the current low base of 3%, moving towards the Reserve Bank’s 4.5% target.

This is also reflective of higher production costs for businesses.

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI)—a precursor to consumer price inflation—shows that meat price inflation increased by 4.1% month-on-month in December 2024 and by 1.1% year-on-year.

This after contracting by 1.1% year-on-year previously. Inflation data for January 2025 will be published later in February.