Major property boss sends a plea to Reserve Bank about interest rates this week
South Africa’s property sector is urging the South African Reserve Bank to keep interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this week.
The argument is that another increase would place further strain on an economy already struggling to gain momentum.
This is the message from Samuel Seeff, chairman of the Seeff Property Group, widely recognised as one of the largest and most successful real estate companies in South Africa.
The call comes despite growing expectations among economists that the central bank could raise the repo rate again as a precaution against inflationary pressures linked to renewed conflict in the Middle East.
However, Seeff believes the Reserve Bank should resist raising borrowing costs for now. “The repo rate currently stands at 7.00%, and prime at 10.50% after the May increase of 25 basis points,” Seeff said.
While recent tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to rise, he argued that the current average price is still about 15-18% lower than the May average when the Bank raised the interest rate. This gives room to pause.
The Reserve Bank increased interest rates in May as a precaution against the risk that higher fuel costs could spread through the economy and lift broader inflation.
Although those second-round effects have yet to materialise, many analysts believe the central bank may choose to remain cautious.
Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop expects the MPC to increase rates again on 23 July, describing the move as largely precautionary rather than a response to runaway inflation.
She said the Reserve Bank is concerned that elevated oil prices could cause inflation to become entrenched.
Bishop believes inflation could temporarily rise, but she does not expect a prolonged period of higher price growth. She sees any July increase as potentially the last before the Bank resumes cutting rates in the future.
Property market under pressure
Seeff argued that the inflation risks should be weighed against the ongoing impact of high borrowing costs on households and the wider economy.
“Even with inflation expected to rise to around 4.7% for June, the projected average for the year is still at just below the Bank’s upper target range of 4%, leaving room for the Bank to take a more considered approach,” he said.
He added that the recent rise in inflation is likely to be temporary, while the effects of restrictive monetary policy have been felt for several years.
“The restrictive monetary policy has contributed to economic stagnation, with the economy largely stuck in a low-growth pattern for several years now,” Seeff said.
He noted that both the Reserve Bank and international organisations, including the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, have lowered South Africa’s economic growth outlook to around 1.1%, reflecting weaker-than-expected economic performance.
According to Seeff, the property market continues to bear much of the burden. Although activity has improved from recent lows, transaction volumes remain well below historical levels.
He said registered property transactions averaged around 22,000 a month in 2021, when interest rates were significantly lower, but have since fallen to about 18,000 a month.
“This is not good for either the property market directly or the economy indirectly,” he said. Higher borrowing costs have also made it harder for younger South Africans to buy homes.
Seeff pointed to market data showing that 25% fewer people aged between 26 and 35 are purchasing property compared with previous years, while the average age of homebuyers has increased to 36.
First-time buyers also account for a smaller share of home loan applications, declining from 56% to 46%.
“All of this highlights the critical need for the Reserve Bank to do everything possible to hold the rate steady, and to restore affordability and market confidence as soon as possible,” Seeff said.
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