Research conducted by FNB, using deeds office data, finds that unlike the City of Cape Town, house price growth in Joburg and City of Tshwane metros over the past while has been mediocre at best.
According to FNB’s first quarter 2017 City of Cape Town Sub-Regional House Price Indices, the City of Tshwane’s estimated average house price growth rate in the first quarter of 2017 was a lowly 4.21%, only marginally better than Joburg’s 3.41% year-on-year.
“Most residential regions in Gauteng have been mediocre in recent years, with performance differentials not huge.
“But zooming in on the City of Joburg – the city estimated to have by far the highest percentage of first time buyers, a group searching for affordability – it is perhaps not surprising to see some out-performance in terms of house price growth over the past five years in the more affordable region of Soweto and surroundings,” said household and property sector strategist at FNB Home Loans, John Loos.
Loos said that in Gauteng’s economy, home affordability for first time buyers is important, as it is these young labour market and housing market entrants that provide the skills base for region’s economy.
Gauteng is not so much a lifestyle region but more a functional, working region, FNB said.
The bank pointed to a massive difference between first time buyer levels in Gauteng’s major cities as opposed to those in the City of Cape Town.
Whereas the sample of agents surveyed during the two summer quarters of of 2016/17 estimated first time buying in Cape Town to be a lowly 8% of total home buying, Joburg and Tshwane’s sample of agents surveyed estimated that first time home buyers amounted to 27% and 21% of total home buyers respectively.
Loos said that a view of FNB’s regional house price indices for the City of Joburg’s main sub-regions over the past five years indeed appears reflective of a market with strong new entrant buying and no fireworks on the affluent side.
“Whereas in the City of Cape Town it has been the most affluent/highest priced regions that have outperformed the rest, in Joburg, the high priced Sandton region is very much in the middle of the pack, having inflated only 22.66% over the five years from early-2012 to early-2017, FNB said.
It said that while very little stands out in the Joburg area over these past five years, it is the lower priced Diepkloof-Soweto-Meadowlands-Pimville region that has seen the fastest estimated cumulative house price growth at 37.35%.
City of Johannesburg sub-regional house price indices:
This former township region, FNB said, has received major infrastructure and retail upgrades over the years, and has become a more attractive place to live in a Joburg market high on new housing market entrants searching for affordability.
Similarly in Tshwane, house price growth has been slow over the past five years, especially when compared to the country’s top performing areas in Cape Town.
City of Tshwane sub-regional house price indices: