Energy

Expected petrol and diesel price changes for next week

Staff Writer

 ·29 Nov 2019

South African motorists can expect a mixed bag for fuel prices in December, with petrol likely to be hiked, while diesel prices are seen coming down.

This is down to the divergence in the international prices of refined fuels, which have caused an unusual fuel price picture for December the Automobile Association (AA) said, commenting on unaudited month-end fuel price data released by the Central Energy Fund.

“The rand / US dollar exchange rate has remained fairly flat throughout November, contributing around a six-cent drop per litre. However, the prices of refined petrol and diesel, which usually track each-other’s movements, but with a fair gap between their prices, have showed an altogether different picture recently,” it said.

This has led to the unusual situation where diesel is set for a quite substantial decrease of 23 cents a litre, while petrol will increase by 11 cents a litre. Illuminating paraffin, which tends to shadow the diesel price, will also be down, by 25 cents a litre.

These are the changes as at 28 November 2019:

• 95 petrol: increase by 10 cents per litre
• 93 petrol: increase by 11 cents per litre
• 0.05% diesel: decrease by 22 cents per litre
• 0.005% diesel: decrease by 22 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease by 25 cents per litre

The Regulatory Accounting System (RAS) Industry margin – which is adjusted on the first Wednesday of every December – must also be factored into these predictions. It is unknown by how much exactly these will be adjusted. Last year this amounted to 7.7 cents a litre for petrol and 4.59 cents a litre for diesel.

However, the increase to petrol could be around 19 cents a litre, and a decrease to diesel of 18 cents a litre.

The official fuel price adjustment by the Department of Energy for December will clarify these amounts. The department is expected to publish the official changes sometime before they come into effect on Wednesday 4 December.

The association said that petrol and diesel reached parity around mid-month and ran neck-and-neck for several days, before a brief divergence, before yet another period of similar pricing.

“We’re currently in another period of divergence. The variance between refined petrol and diesel prices is generally attributable to changes in refining capacity and demand, especially as the Northern Hemisphere heads into its winter and demand for heating fuels increases,” the AA said.

The association said the extended period of rand stability has given the country a breather, and noted that the basic fuel prices also remained fairly stable.

“In the absence of any unexpected political or economic shocks, we are cautiously optimistic about fuel price stability heading into 2020,” it said.

Read: Here is the expected petrol price for December