Energy

Here is the expected petrol price for October

Staff Writer

 ·16 Sep 2025

Mid-month estimates based on data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) point to mixed expectations for fuel prices in October.

According to the latest fuel recoveries data, petrol prices are still on track for a small increase next month, with an under-recovery of 8 to 16 cents per litre.

Diesel, meanwhile, should be heading for a small cut, with an over-recovery of around 9 cents per litre.

The recoveries are based on the movements in the rand/dollar exchange rate and the movement in international petroleum product prices, influenced mainly by global oil prices.

While the rand is trading stronger against the dollar and contributing to an over-recovery in local fuel prices, international product prices have been trending upwards, pushing into an under-recovery.

These are the projected levels at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: increase of 8 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of 16 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 10 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 9 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 14 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for October.

The daily snapshots from the CEF are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

However, the data does give a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects the current market trends for the first half of the month.

Stronger rand is helping

The main contributor to a better outcome for local fuel prices is the rand, which has proven to be surprisingly resilient against the dollar during what was expected to be a highly volatile period.

While still trading some way off from its fair value of around R16/$, the rand had not crashed as many had expected when the 30% trade tariff hit South Africa in August.

Instead, the local unit has come out stronger in the face of a weaker dollar, with the US Fed’s latest indications that it will cut interest rates this month helping the rand along further.

After being stuck on a relatively narrow range between R17.50 and R17.80/$ since August, the rand finally broke through the R17.50 resistance level and moved towards nine-month highs of R17.30/$.

The rand is currently trading at R17.32 to the dollar, as markets await the US interest rate cuts.

Notably, the rand’s strength is largely tied to dollar weakness, not any inherent qualities. This is evidenced by the unit’s lack of strength against other currencies like the euro or British pound.

Weak economic fundamentals—including low growth, high unemployment and poor policy and slow reforms—are keeping the rand generally weak.

Regardless, the over-performance relative to last month has led to an over-recovery in fuel prices of 9 cents per litre.

Oil prices are mixed

The main driver of the mixed outlook for local fuel prices is the international product basket price.

This basket is mainly influenced by the global oil price, but also factors in other market dynamics which influence the basic fuel price.

In July and August, this was seen in the petrol and diesel prices diverging, as a wider global diesel supply crunch caused diesel prices to surge, while petrol prices came down.

Over the past month or so, diesel prices have regularised, and they continue to do so.

Oil prices continue to trade in a tight range, having hovered around the $66 a barrel mark for the past month or so.

Earlier in September, prices moved lower to under $65 a barrel, but have since risen back to $67 a barrel. This narrow trading is reflected in recoveries through the small swings.

For petrol prices, this is contributing to a bigger under-recovery of between 16 and 25 cents per litre. For diesel, the result is flat at 0 cents per litre.

According to Bloomberg, global oil prices have been caught between heightened geopolitical tensions and the faster-than-scheduled return of OPEC+ supply.

This has prompted the International Energy Agency to forecast a record glut next year, which should keep prices low.

This is how the price changes will reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):