Energy

Here is the expected petrol price for August

Staff Writer

 ·15 Jul 2026

Despite conflict between the United States and Iran flaring up once again, motorists in South Africa are still lined up for relief at the pumps in August—but it may not last.

According to mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), recoveries for petrol and diesel are in the black, with a sizeable cut on the cards next month.

Petrol price recoveries are currently between R1.26 and R1.30 per litre, while diesel price recoveries are lower, at between 47 cents and 74 cents per litre.

While recoveries are positive and still significant, they have been receding throughout the month, tracking the climb of global fuel prices.

The month started with petrol over-recoveries at R2.50 per litre and diesel at around R3.50 per litre.

Over the past two weeks, as oil prices rose and the rand came under pressure amid the resurgence of conflict in the Middle East, these over-recoveries have reduced by over R1 to R2 per litre.

Oil is currently trading around $85 a barrel, having gained over the past three days. The rand, at R16.34/$, remains resilient, but is also facing pressure from the global shifts in sentiment.

These are the recoveries at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: decrease of R1.30 per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of R1.26 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 47 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 74 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 73 cents per litre

The lower over-recoveries point to a slower climb-down in fuel prices.

After the July fuel price adjustments, petrol prices are still around R6.00 per litre higher than when the US-Iran war first erupted. Diesel prices are still higher by more than R7.00 per litre.

After a ceasefire was signed and negotiations for a longer-term end to the conflict began, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz picked up, leading to prices moving rapidly toward pre-war levels ($70).

However, the impact on fuel recoveries is lagging, and the latest developments in the war are not helping, with the ceasefire now collapsing.

The US completed strikes against Iran late Tuesday (14 July) New York time, hitting dozens of military sites near the strait and along the nation’s coast, US Central Command said.

The US has also resumed its blockade of the Strait, with analysts warning that oil prices are likely to remain above $80 a barrel and could escalate back towards $100 a barrel.

This means that fuel price over-recoveries could continue their march toward neutral (i.e., shrink further), or even swing into negative under-recovery territory before month-end.

The CEF’s snapshot data is therefore not entirely predictive, but rather serves as a solid indication of where prices are trending.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will announce the official changes before they kick in on Wednesday, 5 August 2026.

This is how the price changes are expected to reflect at the pumps at current levels (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):

Post-Iran War price adjustments