Here’s the answer to your question about tourism in South Africa

 ·29 Sep 2022

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has published its tourism and migration report ending July 2022, showing how the country’s tourism sector is coping as it continues to recover from being shut down in 2020 and 2021.

The data points to encouraging growth in the sector over the last year. However, coming off the low base of lockdowns and reduced travel in 2021, the reality is that the industry remains under pressure and is struggling to reach pre-Covid levels.

According to the Stats SA data, the number of South African travellers within the country increased by 222.8%, while the number of foreign travellers increased by 215.8% compared to July 2021.

Stats SA’s Tourist accommodation report – which highlights the year-on-year change in income from accommodation – showed a 140% increase in income received over the same period.

While all accommodation types recorded positive income growth in July 2022, the most notable contributors were hotels and guest houses and farms – which saw an increase in income of 265.8% and 237.7%, respectively.

However, while these numbers are encouraging, they can also be deceiving as the tourist industry is still struggling comparatively as South Africa was still under Covid-19 restrictions in 2021.

Although overseas tourist arrivals were five times larger on a year-on-year basis in July 2022, the recovery from the pandemic shock is still incomplete, as arrivals were about half of what they were pre-Covid in 2019.

Speaking on the sidelines of a tourism conference earlier in September, FlySafair CEO Elmar Conradie noted that domestic and international travels are currently around 70% and 67%, respectively, of what they were in 2019.

According to Stats SA’s tourism and migration report from 2019, the number of foreign travellers to South Africa in July 2019 was around 2.2 million compared to 1.3 million recorded in July 2022.

Let’s go camping instead

South Africa’s accommodation sector is struggling to return to pre-covid levels, with overall occupancy rates at 35.5%, compared to 45.5% in July 2019.

The occupancy rate at hotels is sitting at 35.6% vs 47.3% in July 2019, and similar struggles are being felt among guest-houses and guest farms (22.7% occupancy vs 33.2% in 2019) and other accommodation types (38.0% vs 47.7%).

The only accommodation type to see a recovery – and then some – are camping grounds and caravan parks, which has seen occupancy rates climb to 49%, up from 29.5% in 2019.

The graph below shows the occupancy rate in the accommodation industry from 2017 to July 2022, sourced from Stats SA.

Adverse effects on the tourism sector

Absa noted that tourism numbers in South Africa seem to be decelerating due to a slowing global economy amid elevated inflation and tightening monetary policy – adversely affecting the pace of recovery of international leisure tourism.

These economic conditions are also being felt by South Africa’s domestic tourism, as inflation and rising fuel prices have impacted both road and air travel.

A contributing factor to the impact on domestic air travel is that South African airlines are currently under a lot of strain following the closure of half the businesses operating in the space over the last year.

Of South Africa’s eight domestic airlines that were in operation pre-Covid-19, only four remain: FlySafair, Lift, CemAir and Airlink. Other airlines – SA Express, Kulula, British Airways and Mango – have all been grounded or liquidated, taking significant capacity out of the skies.

Following the closure of Comair, the industry lost around 40% of its flight capacity. The loss of SA Express and the grounding of Mango have only exacerbated this.

“Domestically, demand bounced back very quickly, and there isn’t enough capacity to meet it. There are not enough flights. Regionally, there are administration issues, especially around licences,” Conradie said.

He added that there are a lot of routes that are left unserviced. Things are improving – but it’s a slow process.

Conradie also noted that input costs for airlines had increased significantly. Fuel prices have doubled, and the rand’s weakness against the dollar has also caused maintenance costs – priced in dollars – to shoot up.

This limit in flight capacity and rising input costs have kept ticket prices high, and Conradie added that remaining domestic airlines are likely to remain under pressure for the next four to five months.

Despite the current uncertainty, the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) noted this week that visitor numbers are expected to recover soon due to the coming festive season. This trend is expected to continue into 2023.

Meanwhile, the minister of tourism, Lindiwe Sisulu, highlighted that forward bookings for August to January 2023 have increased by 227% compared to last year, pointing to some optimism for the sector.

However, these green shoots are contingent on a wider recovery in the economy, including lowering fuel prices, stabilising the power grid, inflation coming into manageable ranges, and the local airline industry building enough capacity to meet demand.


Read: Airline association warns of flight disruptions and cancellations due to fuel shortage

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