Andre de Ruyter’s comment about Eskom becoming true

Eskom’s latest operational data revealed that Eskom is burning more diesel than at the height of load-shedding, raising concerns about the power utility’s performance.

On Friday, 11 April 2025, Eskom celebrated that load-shedding remained suspended, claiming that the power system remained stable.

“Emergency reserves are adequate and being used strategically to meet peak demand,” Eskom said in a statement.

It added that it performed a high level of planned maintenance to enhance fleet reliability for the anticipated peak winter demand.

On Friday, 7,402 megawatts of Eskom’s generation capacity was under planned maintenance, giving a glimpse into maintenance load.

It revealed that from 1 to 10 April 2025, the year-to-date energy availability factor (EAF) stands at 56.11%.

The energy availability factor shows the percentage of time the power station was available for use when it was needed. It is a core measure of performance.

Eskom’s EAF for the 2025 financial year is lower than the same period last year, which Eskom said was due to higher planned maintenance.

However, the power utility promised South Africa that it would reach 70% by the end of March 2025, which is needed to stop load-shedding.

On 22 January 2023, Eskom chair Mpho Makwana said they had embarked on a turnaround journey to improve plant performance and reduce load-shedding.

They set an energy availability factor target of 60% by March 2023, 65% by March 2024, and 70% by March 2025.

Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati also told South Africans that load-shedding would be history by the end of March 2025.

He cited Eskom’s extensive two-year maintenance plan, from March 2023 to March 2025, as the solution to South Africa’s rolling blackouts.

“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding,” Nyati said.

Judgment day has arrived, and Eskom fell far short of its availability factor target of 70% to end load-shedding for good.

Eskom burning diesel at the rate of knots

Eskom revealed that from 1 to 10 April 2025, it spent approximately R1.34 billion on fuel for the Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) fleet.

The power utility generated 228.33GWh during this period using OCGTs, which is much higher than the 64.09GWh generated during the same period last year.

Eskom added that it spent R3.6 billion on diesel over the past 30 days, representing a 2.5% decrease compared to the previous 30-day period.

The data showed that Eskom’s diesel use in the 2025 calendar year is much higher than at the height of load-shedding.

It showed that Eskom’s coal generation plants could not meet demand, so it relies on burning billions in diesel to keep the lights on.

This data substantiates former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter’s claims that the only reason for no load-shedding was that the power utility burned diesel.

De Ruyter made this claim during his keynote address at the PSG Financial Services Annual Conference in May 2024.

“If the lights are on, it is because they are pouring a considerable amount of money into diesel at a rate of knots,” he said.

His claims were debatable at the time as Eskom’s diesel use was declining. However, recent data shows that this trend has reversed.

The latest year-to-date data, from 1 January to 13 April, showed that Eskom’s average daily diesel usage has increased every year since 2021.

Diesel generation increased from 118 MWh in 2021 to the current average daily diesel generation of 518 MWh.

The charts below show Eskom’s year-to-date OCGT power generation from the 2021 to 2025 calendar years.

South Africans should prepare for load-shedding

Many energy experts, including Chris Yelland and Anton Eberhard, warned that South Africans should expect load-shedding in winter.

Eberhard highlighted that Eskom’s energy availability factor averaged between 55% and 58% this year, which was way below their generation recovery plan.

“Diesel-fired power stations’ use has peaked, and emergency plants have been running hard recently,” he said.

Eberhard hinted that this data showed that more load-shedding and power cuts were on their way in South Africa.

Yelland also said Eskom’s lower-than-expected EAF raised concerns over load-shedding during winter.

“EAF has been pretty flat for the year to date, averaging 58.85%, which is much lower than forecast in the Generation Recovery Plan,” he said.

“For the last two weeks, the energy availability factor has dropped below the EAF for the same period last year.”

“If this trend continues and the EAF does not significantly increase as demand increases with the onset of colder weather, we will likely experience some load-shedding.”