Andre de Ruyter’s damning claim about Eskom becoming reality

Eskom’s latest operational data show that it is burning more diesel than ever before to keep the lights on, substantiating former Chief Executive Andre de Ruyter’s claims.

Over the last few weeks, load-shedding made an unwelcome return. Last week, Eskom implemented stage 2 load-shedding during the evening peaks.

The load-shedding was not unexpected. From 9 to 15 May 2025, unplanned outages averaged 14,162 MW, representing an increase of 2,490 MW compared to the same period last year.

This was 1,162 MW above Eskom’s base case of 13,000 MW. Eskom warned that it has to implement load-shedding if breakdowns exceed 13,000 MW.

Eskom’s Winter Outlook, published on 5 May 2025, indicated that load-shedding would not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13,000 MW.

“If outages rise to 15,000 MW, load shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to Stage 2,” it said.

For the financial year to date, from 1 April 2025 to 15 May 2025, average unplanned outages stand at 13,456 MW.

Eskom explained that outage slips were the primary driver of the fluctuations in unplanned outages at its power plants.

This occurs when a unit initially scheduled for planned maintenance is reclassified as unplanned because it exceeds the scheduled maintenance timeframe.

The higher unplanned outages, along with increased planned maintenance, caused the year-to-date energy availability factor (EAF) to drop to 56.97%, compared to 59.98% last year.

To put this into perspective, Eskom planned to reach an EAF of 70% by March 2025, which would have signalled the end of load shedding.

On 22 January 2023, former Eskom chair Mpho Makwana announced that they had embarked on a turnaround journey to improve plant performance and reduce load-shedding.

“It will take at least two years to improve the energy availability factor from the current 58% to 70%,” Makwana said at the time.

In October 2024, Eskom reiterated its target to reach a 70% EAF by March 2025, which would ensure a stable energy supply and reduce diesel expenditure.

Eskom Chairman Mteto Nyati also stated that their Generation Recovery Plan would be completed by 31 March 2025, marking the end of load-shedding.

“At the end of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed,” Nyati said earlier this year.

“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding.”

The latest Eskom data showed that Eskom missed these targets by a wide margin, which means that South Africa still has to suffer through load-shedding.

Eskom burning more diesel than ever to keep the lights on

Eskom poor performance, including the high unplanned outages and low energy availability factor, is putting severe strain on the grid.

To avoid higher levels of load shedding, Eskom is generating more electricity through its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) than ever before.

On Friday, 16 May 2025, Eskom announced that it had spent approximately R2.85 billion on fuel for the OCGT fleet year-to-date, generating 478.63GWh.

This is a 171% increase in OCGT use compared to the same period last year, when it generated 176.85 GWh through its diesel generators.

This is particularly concerning as Eskom promised the country that its improved performance from April 2025 would reduce diesel expenditure.

It further aligns with former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter’s claim that Eskom’s performance did not significantly improve and that burning diesel is necessary to keep the lights on.

“If the lights are on, it is because they are pouring a considerable amount of money into diesel at a rate of knots,” he said in May 2024.

BusinessTech tracked Eskom’s OCGT use year-to-date from 2020 to 2025, which showed that it is at an all-time high.

The chart below, which uses Eskom’s official data, shows the power generation through open-cycle gas turbines.