Another load shedding disaster coming for South Africa

South Africa may be keeping load shedding away for now, but a new energy crisis is looming if the country fails to build new capacity. 

This is the warning from the latest 2025 Energy Market Projections report, compiled by Cresco in collaboration with Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking.

The report, which is updated twice yearly and based on real-time project data and Eskom’s operational performance, presents a sobering outlook.

The data showed that the country has a narrow window to secure long-term energy stability, and there is “little margin for error.”

Since March 2024, there has been little load shedding thanks to improved generation from Eskom’s coal fleet. But this reprieve is temporary. 

A major policy shift outlined in the Integrated Resource Plan 2024 (IRP2024) was the Cabinet’s decision to delay decommissioning three coal-fired power stations.

These coal-fired power stations are Camden, Grootvlei, and Hendrina, and are planned to run until 2030. 

This buys time for other generation sources to come online, but puts South Africa’s climate commitments at risk. 

“The decision to delay decommissioning raises concerns that South Africa’s climate commitments and the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) would be jeopardised,” the report said.

Despite this, the recently enacted Climate Change Bill reinforces the country’s commitment to decarbonisation under the Paris Agreement.

“The coal extension buys South Africa time, but it also raises the bar for everything else,” said Rentia van Tonder, Head of Power at Standard Bank. 

The report noted that up to 4GW of Eskom’s coal generation could be unavailable by 2030 due to unplanned breakdowns or the planned decommissioning of coal power plants. 

By 2040, coal’s contribution to the energy mix will fall to just 25%, with only five plants expected to remain operational.

The report stressed that, to prevent a return of significant load shedding, South Africa must urgently accelerate new energy projects, especially in renewables, gas, and battery storage. 

“Balancing coal decommissioning with new generation capacity additions will be critical in supporting and enabling economic growth and a robust power system,” the report warned.

Gas is set to play a pivotal role in this transition, with the IRP2024 forecasting 6GW of gas capacity by 2030 and 10GW by 2040.

Government needs to start moving now

However, Cresco is sceptical about the feasibility of reaching the targets outlined in the IRP2024. 

The Cresco report highlighted slow policy implementation and a lack of infrastructure as critical constraints.

“Even if 10GW is achieved, it would only be sufficient for today’s energy demands, not those of 2040,” the report said. 

“Access to storage technologies, gas, and nuclear options remains a concern, with limited development,” said van Tonder. 

“This is due to slow implementation of policy enablers and investment cases to enable the relevant infrastructure development.”

Without urgent investments in pipelines, regasification terminals and clarity in policy, gas won’t be able to reliably fill the gaps left by renewables during peak demand hours.

Solar and wind are projected to dominate the energy mix by 2040, supplying an average of 41% of the country’s power, up from just 8% in 2024. 

However, the variability of renewables makes battery storage essential to maintain grid stability. 

Utility-scale batteries and private systems will be key in smoothing out the peaks and troughs in generation, particularly in the evenings when solar energy drops off but demand remains high.

“Given the non-dispatchable nature of renewable energy generation, both utility-scale and smaller private-scale battery energy storage systems will become increasingly important to contribute to grid stability,” said Robert Futter, Executive Director at Cresco Group.

Cresco suggested that new technologies, including long-duration storage using nickel or iron ore, could reduce storage costs and enable the widespread deployment needed to support the renewable rollout. 

Private sector participation is another bright spot. Mining and industrial companies are investing heavily in their own power generation to meet net-zero goals. 

Rooftop solar is already reducing demand from Eskom during daylight hours, and if regulations allow for grid feed-in, households could play a much larger role in balancing national demand.

Despite this, there are bottlenecks. The report stressed that grid connection delays are now the main obstacle.

Many projects from Bid Window 7 of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) have stalled due to a lack of grid access.

 “Further delays in reaching financial close will impact the investment case, whilst grid allocation and process remain a key concern,” warned van Tonder.

By 2030, renewable energy is projected to provide 24% of total generation, reaching 47% at peak midday hours. 

However, this still leaves gaps in the mornings and evenings, requiring backup from gas or battery systems. By 2040, those peaks will be even harder to manage without investment being made now.

“Considering the looming risk of another energy crisis, which may materialise as soon as coal decommissioning is resumed, new capacity additions and RE implementation need to increase dramatically,” the report warned. 

South Africa must urgently scale up storage, finalise gas infrastructure, accelerate renewables, and fix the grid connection backlog. 

“Get any of these wrong, and load shedding could return,” the report said. “Get them right, and South Africa can move closer to realising its vision of a modern, resilient and affordable power system.”