Energy

Here is the expected petrol price for January

Staff Writer

 ·16 Dec 2025

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicate that petrol and diesel users in South Africa are anticipating a significant price cut in the new year.

The data shows that both the rand-dollar exchange rate and the movement in global product prices, driven by global oil, are working in favour of motorists.

The stronger rand heading into the new year has kept fuel recoveries positive, while oil prices have dropped significantly, bringing petrol prices into the positive as well.

Contrary to the start of the month, petrol prices are now consistently showing a positive recovery, currently at between 15 and 17 cents per litre.

Diesel prices, meanwhile, have just continued to shine, now showing around a R1 per litre over-recovery heading into the new year.

These are the projected levels at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 15 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 17 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 94 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 102 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 69 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for December.

The daily snapshots from the CEF are also not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

However, the data does give a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects the current market trends for the first half of the month.

Rand dollar exchange

As the year draws to a close, the rand remains on the front foot, trading stronger against the dollar at around R16.80/$

The unit strengthened on Monday, supported by higher gold prices, as local investors looked towards the year’s final pieces of economic data for clues on the health of the economy.

Gold held near a more than seven-week high on Monday on a weaker dollar and lower US yields. As a major producer of precious metals, South Africa often benefits from firmer bullion prices.

“Through the past week, the rand was able to capitalise on weaker USD sentiment. As the USD remained in a weaker trend, the rand was able to sustain the break below 16.90/$ and open the door for even more appreciation,” ETM Analytics said in a research note.

“Technically speaking, the rand could now test levels in the 16.60s before the end of the year, which would play a significant role in reinforcing the virtuous cycle that has resulted in the rand appreciating as much as it has this year,” ETM Analytics said.

Global oil prices

Oil is on track for a yearly loss with supply set to exceed demand both this year and next, thanks to growth in production from within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and a host of nations outside the group in the Americas.

The International Energy Agency estimates that the surplus next year will be the largest on record.

More recently, oil extended declines, with Brent crude slipping below $60 a barrel for the first time since May, as indications grow that supply is outpacing demand against the backdrop of efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Signs of weakness are mounting across the oil market, with Middle Eastern crude prices briefly entering a bearish contango pattern early on Tuesday.

The same has happened with some barrels sold on the US Gulf Coast. Other parts of the market, however, remain in the opposite backwardation pattern that still indicates supply tightness.

Notably, the decline will bring some relief to central bankers looking to cut interest rates next year by offering a reprieve from inflationary pressure.

However, it also threatens the budgets of oil producer nations and companies alike.

The drop in recent days has been compounded by the prospect of an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he has an agreement with the US to make security guarantees legally binding through a vote in Congress as part of a deal to end Russia’s war.

This is how the price changes are expected to reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):