Energy

Another huge petrol price hike on the cards for South Africa in October

Staff Writer

 ·2 Sep 2026

With higher petrol and diesel prices kicking in from Wednesday (2 September), early fuel price recovery data for October shows that the pain for motorists is not yet over.

According to data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) as of the start of September 2026, fuel price recoveries are again on the back foot, deep in the red.

Petrol prices are starting with an under-recovery between R2.11 and R2.22 per litre, while diesel is showing an under-recovery of between R2.83 and R3.11 per litre.

These are the recoveries at the start of the month:

• Petrol 93: increase of R2.11 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R2.22 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R2.83 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R3.11 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R2.73 per litre

While it is still far too early in the review period to make a call with any certainty, the starting data shows a difficult path ahead for the trend to reverse.

Notably, if current market conditions persist—with global oil prices above $90 per barrel and no end in sight to the United States-Iran War—the recovery trend is unlikely to reverse.

However, there is still time for fortunes to swing.

In August, the month also started on the back foot but moved towards a neutral (no increase) position around the middle of the month as tensions in the Middle East eased.

This was undone by escalations in the war, which have persisted since then, resulting in the steep fuel price hikes for September.

This demonstrates the volatility of market conditions.

Unfortunately for motorists, for any meaningful reversal, there would have to be a significant change in the course of the war as well as global oil prices, which analysts deem unlikely.

Oil is currently trading near the highest closing level in over a month as hostilities broke out again between the US and Iran, renewing the threat to energy exports from the Middle East.

Oil is trading at $95 a barrel and moving toward the $100 level, which it reached after the peace talks initially collapsed in mid-July.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have not stopped entirely—as was the case when the war first broke out at the end of February—but have been severely limited.

These energy issues have been exacerbated by supply issues emanating from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has stretched global diesel supplies to their limits.

The rand is helping, but not much

The one saving grace in the fuel price recovery picture remains the rand, which is currently the only force offsetting the under-recovery in oil prices.

The rand is trading at R16.15 per dollar, maintaining its surprising and uncharacteristic stability and resilience amid global conflicts.

While weaker than a week ago, the rand/dollar exchange is still contributing an over-recovery of 11 to 14 cents per litre in prices.

The unit had traded below the R16/$ resistance level due to dollar weakness, but reversed in the past week after a Hawkish US Federal Reserve statement put interest rates back on the forecast.

According to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, the rand has largely shaken off the turmoil in global markets and has room to strengthen further.

Investec’s scenario modelling base case assumes the rand will maintain its strength, averaging R15.90 in the final quarter of 2026.

It is expected to strengthen further heading into the new year, but settle in a R15.75-R16.00/$ range.

In the near term, however, the rand’s surprising run is nowhere near enough to offset the oil price surge.

Should current conditions continue, fuel prices in October could be as much as R9 per litre higher than before the war, while diesel prices would approach R15 per litre more.

Post-Iran War price adjustments