29 million people on grants in South Africa – but only 7.4 million taxpayers

South Africa can expect roughly 44% of its population (28.7 million) on social grants, relying on only 12% (7.4 million) taxpayers.

This imbalance between the number of grant recipients and taxpayers highlights a significant concern for the nation’s fiscal health, as nearly half of South Africa’s 64 million people depend on social assistance.

The South African Social Security Agency (SASSA) data for 2023/24 underlines the scale of reliance, which includes a range of grants for elderly people, children, disabled individuals, and others in need.

Moreover, 9 million individuals receive the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant, initially introduced in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, to address urgent needs in the population.

This extensive reliance on social grants reflects the socio-economic challenges South Africa faces, but the pressure on the economy is magnified by a relatively small taxpayer base.

Over the next three years, 30% of the population will receive some form of social grant – excluding the COVID-19 Special Relief of Distress (SRD) Grant.

This is roughly 19.2 million people. However, this is projected to increase to 19.7 million in 2026/27.

According to the 2024 Budget Review by the National Treasury, only 12% of South Africans contribute income tax, with 7.4 million individuals supporting the social safety net for 29 million others.

The situation is unsustainable in the long term, especially as government spending on social development programs continues to grow without a corresponding increase in tax revenue.

Social development spending is one of the top three allocations in South Africa’s 2024/25 national budget, accounting for R387 billion.

This includes funding for old-age pensions, child support grants, social security funds, and other welfare programs.

Over the next three years, the government has committed R1.17 trillion to social grants and welfare services.

Yet, as generous as these programs may be, they are straining the national budget in ways that raise serious concerns for South Africa’s financial future.

The country’s fiscal challenges are exacerbated by the tax structure, which heavily relies on a small subset of the taxpayer population.

While personal income tax contributes the largest share of the national revenue, those earning above R1.5 million a year — a group that comprises only 2.7% of taxpayers — contribute about 32% of total personal income tax revenue.

This concentration of tax responsibility among a small elite group makes the tax base both narrow and vulnerable to economic downturns, where even a slight decline in high-income earners could have outsized effects on the nation’s revenue.

A fundamental problem is that while social spending is rising, economic growth and job creation lag behind.

With mounting debt, South Africa faces the very real possibility of a debt crisis, where debt service costs become overwhelming, crowding out other essential government functions.

Despite the warnings, there appears to be limited appetite within the government to reduce grant spending significantly.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has even suggested that the SRD grant could form the foundation of a broader Basic Income Grant, which would permanently expand the grant system.

Such a move would likely add billions of rands to the annual budget, deepening the financial strain on an already stretched system.

Leading economists warn of severe consequences if the current trajectory continues.

Economist Dawie Roodt has cautioned that South Africa’s growing debt burden is among the greatest threats to its economic stability, pointing to the potential for a financial crisis if expenditures remain unchecked.

“The state owes too much money. We cannot afford to spend like we do,” Roodt has stated, emphasizing the urgency for fiscal responsibility.

In light of these pressures, the National Treasury has proposed allocating around R3.4 billion to job creation initiatives in 2024/25.

While this is a step in the right direction, the allocation pales compared to the hundreds of billions committed to social grants.

Addressing unemployment effectively is crucial, as expanding the taxpayer base by increasing employment would help ease the imbalance and reduce dependency on social assistance.

However, until the economy generates sufficient jobs to decrease the reliance on welfare, South Africa will remain stuck in a precarious loop of rising debt and limited revenue growth.

The outlook for South Africa’s social grant system underscores a fundamental economic dilemma: how to support vulnerable citizens without risking fiscal collapse.

Without reforms to either broaden the tax base or limit grant expenditure, the country’s financial health will remain under significant threat, potentially impacting the very social services it seeks to preserve.

The table below shows the National Treasury’s estimates of individuals and taxable income for the 2024/25 financial year.

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