Big turn for South Africans earning between R5,000 and R20,000 a month
South African consumer confidence has risen to its highest point in 2025, with the country’s middle-class consumers—those earning between R5,000 and R20,000 per month—driving the turn.
According to the latest FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index for the fourth quarter of the year, confidence levels among consumers have risen to -9 points in Q4.
While this is still in negative terrotory, and below the -6 recorded in Q4 2024 and lower than the long-run average of -1, it is the highest confidence level recorded in 2025.
The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) noted that the reading was a positive sign for the country and for retailers and businesses in general.
This is because it points to stronger sentiment among consumers in the final months of the year, which should translate to higher sales.
“The growth in retail sales volumes averaged an impressive 3.9% year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2025,” the BER said.
“The improvement in consumer sentiment suggests that consumers’ appetite to spend extended into the holiday season.”
The BER noted that the CCI sub-index that measures the suitability to buy durable goods rose to its best level in more than six years.
Growth in retail sales is still expected to slow in y-o-y % change terms, especially given the comparison with the very high 2024Q4 base when two-pot retirement withdrawals kicked in.
However, the uptick in the CCI, coupled with employment gains and a further interest rate cut, suggests that the growth moderation could be less than previously anticipated.
All three of the sub-indices of the CCI improved during 2025Q4.
The sub-index measuring the appropriateness of the present time to buy durable goods (e.g., vehicles, furniture, household appliances and electronic goods) saw the largest jump, from -20 to -14 index points, reaching the highest level since 2019Q2.
Lower interest rates and a stronger rand exchange rate (i.e., lower import prices) are supporting the affordability of durable goods in particular.
Given that the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) announced its most recent 25 basis point interest rate cut on 20 November – towards the very end of the CCI survey period – there may well be scope for the time-to-buy durables index to improve further.
The economic outlook sub-index of the CCI, in turn, rebounded from -22 to -19 in 2025Q4, while the household finances sub-index increased from 3 to 5 index points.
Middle class sees a big turn
Looking at the different economic classes, two of the three saw a shift towards being more positive, the most pronounced being among the middle class.
The confidence levels of middle-income households earning between R5,000 and R20,000 per month rebounded from -16 to -8.
This followed a surprisingly large slump from -7 to -16 in the third quarter.
The confidence levels of low-income households earning less than R5,000 per month) edged up from -9 to -8 index points.
The confidence levels of high-income households earning more than R20,000 per month slipped from -11 to -12 index points during 2025Q4.
FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said a wide array of positive economic factors bolstered consumers.
Apart from a further interest rate cut and an appreciation in the rand exchange rate, consumers also enjoyed a 47-cent-per-litre decline in the petrol price between August and November, food inflation easing from 5.5% in July to 3.9% by October, and a 248,000 jump in employment during Q3.
“Additionally, South Africa received a sovereign credit rating upgrade by S&P for the first time in 20 years and was also removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey list,” Matikinca-Ngwenya said.
Ultimately, the uptick in consumer sentiment shows a slight improvement in the willingness to spend, particularly among middle-income households, relative to the third quarter of 2025, the BER said.
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