The latest election polls from Ipsos and eNCA show that support for the three biggest parties contesting the 2016 municipal elections has remained fairly stable – though things are looking grim for the ruling ANC in Tshwane.
The polls surveyed a demographically representative group of people made up of adults across all racial groups (majority black – 74%) between the ages of 18 and over 50, from low to middle income households.
In the initial poll at the start of June, the results showed that the DA would win two of the three most hotly-contested metros – Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane, with Johannesburg still under the control of the ANC. By week seven – with many protests and scandals in the interim – the picture is very different.
The polls still show the DA leading across all three contested metros, however analysts have said that the figures in support of the blue party are largely overestimated, with the ANC most likely to keep control of at least two, if not all three metros.
According to investment firm, Nomura, the results of the 2016 elections will likely leave the country in a precarious state due to a weaker ANC and opposition parties scrambling to form shaky coalitions.
The Ipsos poll data shows that a significant number of respondents are still undecided (between 14% and 16%) which paints a picture of no outright majority in any of the metros.
Here are the latest poll results, with only one more week to go before voters cast their ballots.
- DA: 39.91% (+0.67)
- ANC: 23.48% (-1.78)
- EFF: 13.44% (+0.37)
- Undecided: 14.07% (+1.43)
- DA: 36.27% (+1.54)
- ANC: 30.94% (-0.11)
- EFF: 8.79% (-0.12)
- Undecided: 14.22% (-1.58)
Nelson Mandela Bay
- DA: 41.84% (-0.11)
- ANC: 27.61% (+0.44)
- EFF: 5.98% (-2.37)
- Undecided: 16.03% (+0.67)