A new poll run by Ipsos and eNCA shows how public sentiment is swaying between the three leading political parties in South Africa across the most hotly-contested metros ahead of the 2016 municipal elections.
The polls surveyed a demographically representative group of people made up of adults across all racial groups (majority black – 74%) between the ages of 18 and over 50, from low to middle income households.
The survey results were compared to previous polls, showing clear trends for each party between 2014 and 2016:
- The ANC is losing support across all three metros
- The DA is showing consistent growth in support across all metros
- The EFF is showing more muted support, but it growing.
According to the polls, the ANC is likely to remain the winning party in the City of Johannesburg, but not by a big margin, with the DA coming in a very close second.
Notably, the poll results show that the DA has overtaken the ANC in Tshwane and in Nelson Mandela Bay, though also by a small margin.
The DA has put a focus on these three metros in its campaigning, aiming to push the ANC out of the controlling seat. The party has put particular focus on the Nelson Mandela Bay metro.
The poll results also show growing uncertainty among voters in who to vote for compared to the 2014 National Elections, with a larger portion of respondents indicating they do not yet know (or are not prepared to reveal their choice).
The following tables show the results of the polls for the three metros:
City of Johannesburg
| Party | 2014 National Election | 2016 Establishment Survey | 2016 June Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANC | 42% | 29% | 31% |
| DA | 22% | 28% | 29% |
| EFF | 4% | 8% | 10% |
| Don’t know/won’t say | 9% | 21% | 19% |
City of Tshwane
| Party | 2014 National Election | 2016 Establishment Survey | 2016 June Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| DA | 26% | 33% | 33% |
| ANC | 40% | 22% | 28% |
| EFF | 6% | 10% | 10% |
| Don’t know/won’t say | 7% | 18% | 17% |
Nelson Mandela Bay
| Party | 2014 National Election | 2016 Establishment Survey | 2016 June Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| DA | 30% | 38% | 34% |
| ANC | 38% | 29% | 30% |
| EFF | 4% | 8% | 7% |
| Don’t know/won’t say | 5% | 14% | 21% |
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