Another cabinet reshuffle could be on the cards: analyst
Research analyst at Nomura, Peter Attard Montalto, says that another cabinet reshuffle may be on the cards for South Africa, as president Zuma’s opponents voice their opposition to him, and his favoured candidate as the next ANC president still needs to return to Parliament.
In a note to investors on Tuesday, Attard Montalto said that the political climate in South Africa is in for a long, dirty fight to the ANC’s elective conference in December, and that a lot of political maneuvering is still on the cards.
Zuma survived the second attempt by those within the ANC NEC to have him removed, after a motion of no confidence was debated in the party’s latest meeting.
Reports from inside the sitting said that 18 ANC members, including health minister Aaron Motsoaledi, higher education minister Blade Nzimande and trade and industry minister Rob Davies, supported the motion that Zuma resign.
“A key question is what happens to those that spoke out against President Zuma that have not already been sacked,” Attard Montalto said.
After the last reshuffle, which saw former finance minister Pravin Gordhan get the boot, Nomura held that another reshuffle was possible, as some key Zuma detractors were still in cabinet.
“The last time, president Zuma decided to keep these (mainly SACP) enemies close in cabinet. Our baseline for now is that the same occurs again but a second round reshuffle is a tail risk to watch for.”
Another reason a second reshuffle is on the cards is because Zuma’s favoured candidate for the ANC presidency, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, has not yet returned to cabinet with her own portfolio.
It was widely expected that Dlamini-Zuma would return to Zuma’s cabinet in the last reshuffle, which would lend more credence to her bid for the ANC’s top job.
As political tensions rise leading up to the elective conference and lines between the ANC factions are drawn deeper, Zuma himself has warned that he is reaching the point where he will not be pushed any further, and may publicly lash out against his opponents.
“We expect the second half of the year to get ‘dirty’ in terms of the skeletons being let out of the cupboard. The recent ‘sexting’ exposé about the Minister in the Presidency Radebe could have been an early warning along these lines,” Attard Montalto said.
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