Government

People are flooding out of this one province in South Africa

Malcolm Libera

 ·30 Jul 2026

Data from Stats SA shows that people have left the Eastern Cape in droves over the past decade due to economic necessity.

Stats SA’s latest migration estimates combine both inter-provincial migration between South Africa’s nine provinces and net international migration into each province.

The figures show that while some provinces continue to attract large numbers of new residents, others are steadily losing population.

Between 2016 and 2026, the Eastern Cape recorded a combined net migration loss of 587,658 people, the largest of any province over the period. Limpopo followed with a combined net loss of 307,609 people.

Gauteng remained South Africa’s biggest migration destination, recording a combined net gain of 1,654,388 people over the decade. The Western Cape was second, with a net gain of 632,021.

“Gauteng and Western Cape received the highest number of immigrants for all the periods. Meanwhile, Eastern Cape, Limpopo, and Gauteng experienced the largest number of outflows of migrants for all the periods,” the report said.

The agency added that the number of international migrants entering the provinces was highest in Gauteng, with the Western Cape ranking second for all the periods.

This trend is expected to continue. For the 2021 to 2026 period alone, Stats SA estimates that Gauteng will receive approximately 1,420,447 migrants, while the Western Cape is expected to attract around 500,093 migrants.

Although Gauteng also records many people leaving for other provinces, the number arriving far exceeds those departing, resulting in a substantial overall population gain.

Other provinces present a mixed picture. Between 2021 and 2026, KwaZulu-Natal is estimated to record 316,340 out-migrants and 348,878 in-migrants, including 68,032 net international migrants, resulting in a net gain of 32,538 people.

Mpumalanga is expected to record 220,997 out-migrants and 302,489 in-migrants, including 64,152 international migrants, for a net gain of 81,493.

North West is projected to gain 109,142 people through migration, while the Northern Cape is expected to post a modest net gain of 7,888.

The Free State is forecast to lose 13,383 people overall, while Limpopo continues to experience significant internal outflows despite attracting international migrants.

Provincial Total Net Migration (2016–2021 and 2021–2026)

People are leaving for better economic opportunities

Stats SA noted that inter-provincial migration balances out nationally, meaning overall net migration is determined by international migration.

The combined net migration into South Africa amounted to 926,727 people between 2016 and 2021 and is estimated at 883,807 between 2021 and 2026.

“Migration is an important and inevitable demographic process, as it shapes the age structure and distribution of not only the country as a whole, but also the provincial populations,” the agency said. 

It also noted that international migration was heavily disrupted during the Covid-19 pandemic before recovering as restrictions were lifted.

However, Stats SA said assumptions for 2026 were revised following increased deportations and voluntary repatriations of irregular foreign nationals, as well as stricter labour policy enforcement and changing migration sentiment.

The Eastern Cape’s sustained population losses closely mirror its economic challenges. 

Stats SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey consistently shows the province has one of South Africa’s highest unemployment rates, with official unemployment around 39% to 41% and the expanded rate exceeding 50%.

Youth unemployment regularly exceeds 55%, with limited economic activity outside major centres such as Gqeberha and East London.

Combined with rural poverty, fewer higher-education opportunities, and a relatively small labour market, this continues to encourage many residents to relocate.

For many households, moving to Gauteng or the Western Cape remains an economic necessity in pursuit of employment, higher incomes and improved access to services.