A win for Ramaphosa could cost the DA: poll

Several polls have been published in the run-up to the ANC’s elective conference this coming weekend, giving insight into the minds and desires of the South African electorate.

While the polls draw a big red circle around the battle between deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma for leadership of the party, a RatePop poll also highlights what either candidate taking the crown could mean for South Africa’s opposition parties.

The poll, which uses chat bots to survey people via app or on social media platforms, asked voters from all parties how they would vote in the 2019 elections if either Ramaphosa or Dlamini-Zuma was leading the ANC.

Among ANC supporters‚ 81% said they would vote for the party in the 2019 national elections if Ramaphosa was in charge – however, the differences were more striking among black voters for opposition parties, particularly the Democratic Alliance.

With Dlamini-Zuma at the helm, almost 7% of the DA’s black voters said they would switch votes to the ANC. However, should Ramaphosa emerge as the top dog, over half (51%) of the DA’s black voters said they would change their votes to the ANC in 2019.

For the EFF, if Ramaphosa becomes leader of the ANC, 43.4% of the EFF’s Black voters say they will vote for the ANC in 2019. Only 3.4% of the EFF’s black voters said they would abandon the party if Dlamini-Zuma was at the helm.

In both cases, a victory for Ramaphosa could have a devastating impact on the EFF and DA’s runs in 2019, RatePop said.

A poll run by MarkData this week found that 55% of ANC supporters want Ramaphosa for the top job, with around 30% giving the nod to Dlamini-Zuma.

The RatePop poll found that Ramaphosa was the clear favourite, with 58.9% of ANC voters throwing their support behind him – compared to only 16% for Dlamini-Zuma.

Ramaphosa’s support has grown by 10% since RatePop first started polling in June 2017, the group said.


Read: Ramaphosa vs Dlamini-Zuma – who will keep supporters voting ANC in 2019: poll

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A win for Ramaphosa could cost the DA: poll