Three ways Zuma could be forced to step down – and what would happen next
The rand traded firmer on Monday afternoon as the markets awaited news from the special sitting of the ANC’s national working committee, who are discussing president Jacob Zuma’s reported response to a request from the party’s top officials to step down.
The local currency is the best performer in the world since Cyril Ramaphosa was elected as ANC leader in December, with investors expecting that Zuma would be replaced early and that the new administration would do a better job of managing the economy, Bloomberg wrote.
By 16h15 on Monday, the local unit was testing a push back below R12.00 against the dollar.
- Dollar/Rand: R12.02 -0.36%
- Pound/Rand: R16.86 -0.85%
- Euro/Rand: R14.93 -0.69%
The ANC’s top six leaders called a special meeting with the 26-person NWC on Monday, reportedly to discuss the weekend deliberations between the party’s leadership and Zuma – where Ramaphosa is said to have formally asked president Zuma to step down.
According to reports, Zuma refused to step down as president because he believes he has done nothing wrong, and has even gone so far as to dare ANC leaders to try and have him removed if they believe they can accomplish it.
The working committee could convene a special meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee, which comprises 86 voting members and has the power to tell Zuma to go, or advise parliamentary Speaker Baleka Mbete to postpone the state-of-the-nation address, according to the officials.
The party could also organise a caucus meeting in parliament to discuss ways to removing the president, such as bringing a no-confidence motion or supporting one from the opposition, they said.
Time is running out
Optimism around Ramaphosa’s business-friendly journey to power has been tempered by Zuma’s consistent defiance to calls to stand down.
Ramaphosa’s supporters have been pushing for Zuma’s exit to help sell the story of a new leadership, serious about fighting against corruption. They also want Ramaphosa to deliver the State of the Nation address later this week.
However, after opposition parties failed to get the address postponed, analysts say that time for someone other than Zuma to deliver the speech is quickly running out.
“I think he knows he has to go. It’s not winnable,” Ralph Mathekga, an independent political analyst based in Johannesburg told Bloomberg on Monday. “I think he is going ahead with the state-of-the-nation address. Logistically it is becoming impossible to have someone else do it.”
While Zuma can’t win the battle to see out his term, his exit is being mishandled by the party’s top leaders, Mathekga said.
“They announce things in the public space that should be done in private,” he said. “I think they have handled things in a way that has hardened president Zuma. Zuma feels a sense of injustice – he feels betrayed.”
According to Phephelaphi Dube, director at the Centre for Constitutional Rights, there are only three main routes to get Zuma out of power before his term is up – but only really one option before the State of the Nation Address on Thursday.
Recall
- Before SONA: Yes
- New president: Ramaphosa
“In terms of the governing party’s political parlance, being “recalled” refers to the governing party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) resolving that the President step down from the position,” Dube said.
Should the Zuma acquiesce to the resolution, then this will be followed by the president’s resignation. A resignation in terms of South Africa’s Constitution, counts as a “vacancy in the office of the president”.
“As such, the deputy president occupies the office of the president, assuming all the responsibilities, powers and functions of the office.”
The Constitution provides that a person who fills the vacancy in the office of the president merely completes the term of office of the recently deposed president, without this regarded as a term. This leaves any such interim president free to hold the office for two more terms, if so elected, Dube said.
Impeachment
- Before SONA: Unlikely
- New president: Ramaphosa
Impeachment requires a two-thirds majority to pass, Dube said – but following a December ruling by the Constitutional Court, things may change.
“The Rules Committee is yet to adopt final regulations regarding the impeachment of a president,” Dube said.
“As such, it is highly unlikely that the president can be successfully impeached before he delivers the State of the Nation Address on 8 February, given that there is not yet a mechanism with which to impeach.”
However, if Zuma was toppled through a successful impeachment, then as with a “recall”, the deputy president would then occupy the office of the president.
Motion of no confidence
- Before SONA: No
- New president: Mbete (acting)
Beyond impeachment, the next route is through the motion of no confidence vote – eight of which Zuma has already survived during his almost 10 years as president.
The EFF had hoped to launch a new motion of no confidence against Zuma before the State of the Nation Address this week – however, speaker of the National Assembly, Baleka Mbete said it could only be accommodated later in the month: specifically, 22 February.
If passed by a simple majority, this motion will remove not just the president from office, but also, the deputy president, the entire cabinet, as well as deputy ministers.
“Thereafter, the Speaker of Parliament assumes the president’s office in an acting capacity until the members of the National Assembly elect one of their own to occupy the office of the president,” Dube said.
“This process obviously differs from the consequences flowing from a president’s “recall” or impeachment in that the deputy president will not occupy the president’s office.
“It will be up to the other members of Parliament to vote him into the highest office of the land. Given a reportedly divided governing party parliamentary caucus, it is unclear who South Africa’s next president will be,” she said.
Loading ...