Watch: Coalition scenarios to consider ahead of the 2019 elections
GIBS Business School recently hosted Leon Schreiber who gave a presentation on South Africa’s current political landscape and possible coalition scenarios.
Schreiber is a senior research specialist at Princeton University’s Innovations for Successful Societies and recently authored Coalition Country: South Africa After the ANC.
His comments come at a time when the local economy is struggling to achieve meaningful growth, while the effects of ‘Ramaphoria’ have begun to wear off.
He believes that structural shifts in South Africa’s demographics and voting patterns, as well as urbanisation and the growth of the middle class are all a threat to the current ANC government, meaning it could lose the majority of the vote in the coming election.
Considering this possibility, Schreiber argues that there are four main coalitions options currently possible for the country.
The ANC and the DA
Schreiber said that while a coalition between the DA and ANC is one of the ‘best’ possibilities for the country’s development, but is perhaps one of the least likely to occur.
He indicated that while the coalition is a possibility (even in the short-term), it is unlikely due to the fact that the DA had spent the last 24 yours defining its brand as being opposition to the ANC.
He added that putting the ANC back into power immediately after losing it would be a dangerous strategy for the DA – but still one worth thinking about as the two parties represent the majority of South Africans.
The ANC and the EFF
A more likely scenario, but also one of the most dangerous for the country’s future, is the possibility of an ANC and EFF coalition.
Schreiber said that this was perhaps one of the worst possible outcomes and one that should be taken seriously as it could have a serious impact on governance.
He added that the ANC may be prepared to make serious populist compromises to deal with the EFF as a way to hang onto power.
Speaking on the issue of redistribution of land, Schreiber noted that the ANC has already made a populist compromise simply over fear of losing the majority of the vote – meaning it could make much more serious compromises if it did lose majority.
The DA and the EFF
Schreiber said that a coalition between the DA and the EFF has ‘a lot of promise to it’ as can be seen in some cooperation deals currently in place across some of the major metros.
He added that this coalition is likely to be more successful than any other, as the two parties are incredibly different ideologically. This is because that they will have made compromises and addressed their differences before entering into any deals, he said.
Minority government
Schreiber said that a minority government was also a very likely scenario if the ANC ever falls below 50%, as there was already precedent for it.
In this scenario, Schreiber said that the EFF could prove to be a force if it refuses to put the ANC in power, but will not be actively complicit with the DA.
In this case the DA/ANC minority government could make a number of ‘executive’ changes but will require the EFF to vote alongside them to make more ‘serious’ changes in areas such as labour and land reform.
However he cautioned that this could also open the system to corruption as parties rely on each for votes.
Loading ...