Social unrest warning for South Africa as crisis hits

South Africa may experience a wave of social unrest in the coming months as the country’s major metropolitan areas are increasingly hit by water shortages. 

These shortages are also exploited by a so-called ‘water tanker mafia’, which profits at the expense of the majority of the population. 

Political scientist RW Johnson said the water crisis South Africa is facing follows the trajectory of the electricity crisis, except that it is not so easily solved.

In terms of electricity, households and businesses can turn to alternative sources of electricity, such as rooftop solar or generators, to mitigate the impact of load-shedding and reduce their reliance on the national grid. 

However, with water, the same cannot be done to a large extent. Only the extremely wealthy can completely reduce their reliance on the central water supply. 

As water shortages become increasingly common, particularly in the country’s economic hub, local municipalities and the national government may have to implement water-shedding. 

Water-shedding works very similarly to load-shedding, with water supply being cut off to particular areas on a rotating basis. 

“I think it will lead to social unrest in time, and before that, I think it will lead to some pretty explosive results in the municipal elections,” Johnson told Biznews. 

He expects the ANC and its coalition partners to lose their control over Gauteng’s metros and possibly the entire province if the looming water crisis is not addressed. 

Water Ledger’s Benoit Le Roy warned that water-shedding could have disastrous consequences. Shutting off reservoirs can create air pockets in downstream infrastructure. These pockets can either block the flow of water or burst pipes, exacerbating the problem. 

“Water-shedding cannot work – planned or unplanned – as water systems are designed to be wet and are not designed to be turned on and off,” he said. 

Water-shedding will also significantly impact economic activity in Gauteng, which may provide another spark for social unrest. 

“In the case of Gauteng, it is a very specific issue because three major metros contain a significant portion of our national manufacturing capacity. They are all at risk from water supply disruptions,” water scientist Professor Anthony Turton said. 

“Of course, when water supply is disrupted, businesses cannot operate. It means that there will also be an impact on the workforce,” he said. 

“You must appreciate that water is the foundation of your national economy. It is the foundation of social stability.”

“Once your water infrastructure starts collapsing, you start to see things like social instability, the flight of capital out of the country, businesses collapsing, and the loss of jobs.” 

“This is a national crisis. It is an existential threat to the very viability of our national economy.” 

Johnson explained that many of the reasons for the coming water crisis are long-term in nature and will take time to fix. 

He said in the late 1990s and early 2000s, during the Mandela and Mbeki administrations, there was a focus on expanding access to electricity and water. 

While a good thing in itself, there was a lack of focus on increasing the supply of these resources. 

“It was perfectly obvious that if you were going to do that, you must increase supply as demand would pick up. There was no attempt to do so,” Johnson said. 

This was coupled with a lack of investment in maintenance under those two administrations, which has continued to the present day. 

“Early ANC governments were coasting along on the back of previous investment in infrastructure that meant national and municipal infrastructure was still in an acceptable state.” 

However, national and local infrastructure began to deteriorate as it came under increasing pressure from elevated demand and a lack of investment in maintenance. 

Johnson also explained that the location of South Africa’s major population centres has created major problems for national and local governments. 

“It is quite ridiculous for the major population centres in Gauteng to be in areas where there is not sufficient water.” 

Director-general at the Department of Water and Sanitation, Dr Sean Phillips, said that Gauteng simply does not have enough fresh water sources to meet the needs of its population. 

This has resulted in the province historically looking elsewhere for water that is then pumped into Gauteng to meet demand. 

The Lesotho Highlands Water Project is Gauteng’s most important water source, contributing significant fresh water to the Vaal River System. 

Phase One of this project met Gauteng’s need for additional water after being completed in 2004. 

However, Phillips said it was soon clear that another phase would have to be built to meet increased demand in Gauteng. As such, feasibility studies for Phase Two began in 2005 and were completed by 2008. 

Phase Two was set to meet Gauteng’s water demand for decades to come and buy the province time to implement other methods to reduce the province’s long-term water demand. 

Projected to cost approximately R7.3 billion and deliver water by January 2020, Phase Two has been beset by delays and cost overruns. 

Now running nine years late, the project is only set to contribute additional freshwater to the Vaal River System by 2028. 

As Phillips explained, there is now simply not enough water in the Vaal River System to allow Rand Water to increase the amount it extracts from it to supply Gauteng. 

This means the province has effectively used up all of its available water sources, resulting in reduced demand and fixing leaks, which are the only solutions available. 

This article was first published by Daily Investor. Read the original here.

Read: Level 3 water restriction warning for Gauteng – what you need to know