Two more provinces in South Africa on the brink of having more people unemployed than working

Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape are on the verge of joining the North West in having more people unemployed than working. 

This would see over half of the working-age population in those provinces categorised as unemployed or having given up looking for work.

The North-West province already carries this distinction with 56% of the population unemployed according to the extended definition.

However, Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape are close by, with expanded unemployment rates of 49.3% and 49.0%, respectively.

This was revealed in Stats SA’s latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the first quarter of 2025, which showed a concerning jump in the unemployment rate. 

According to the survey, South Africa’s official unemployment rate has increased to 32.9% in the first quarter of 2025, rising a whole percentage point from the last quarter.

This exceeded economists’ expectations, who anticipated a smaller climb of just 0.2 percentage points.

Historically, the first quarter of the year shows a drop-off in employment as businesses shed their festive season hires. 

This is compounded by the thousands of fresh matriculants and graduates entering the job market. At 32.9%, the unemployment rate is at the exact same level as in 2024.

Nationally, the number of employed people in the year’s first quarter dropped by 291,000 to 16.8 million from 17.1 million in Q4 2024.

The number of unemployed persons increased by 237,000 to 8.2 million, leading to a contraction in the labour force.

This resulted in a decrease of 54,000 (down by 0.2%) in the labour force during the same period.

Discouraged work-seekers increased by 7,000 (up by 0.2%), and the number of persons who were not economically active for reasons other than discouragement increased by 177,000 (up by 1.4%.

This led to an increase of 184,000 in the number of the not economically active population, to 16.7 million.

However, there were some gains across sectors. The most significant industry increases in employment were recorded in Transport (67,000), Finance (60,000), and Utilities (35,000).

While the formal sector added 122,000 jobs, the informal sector experienced an even larger increase of 165,000 jobs, driven by industries like community and social services (+194,000), construction (+176,000), and trade (+109,000).

Decreases in employment were recorded in Trade (194,000), Construction (119,000), Private households (68,000), Community and Social services (45,000), and Mining (35,000).

The provinces on the edge

The data also highlighted stark provincial disparities. Increases in employment were observed in the Western Cape (49,000), Gauteng (9,000) and the Free State (4,000). 

On the other hand, decreases were observed in KwaZulu-Natal (104,000), Eastern Cape (83,000), North West (57,000), Limpopo (55,000), Mpumalanga (43,000) and Northern Cape (12,000).

In addition to gaining the most jobs, the Western Cape emerged as the province with the lowest official unemployment rate.

This figure for the province is sitting at 19.6%, maintaining its decade-long trend of outperforming the national average.

By contrast, the North West has grappled with consistently high unemployment rates, officially and under the expanded definition, over the past decade.

Under the expanded definition of unemployment, which includes those who have stopped looking for work, the labour market picture becomes bleaker for many regions.

The Western Cape stands out as the only province with an expanded unemployment rate below 25%.

However, the North West’s rate of 56% means more adults are economically inactive than engaged in any form of work.

The North West has been the only province where over half of the working-age population is either unemployed or has given up looking for work. 

However, due to the rising unemployment rates, other provinces are fast approaching the line and could soon join it.

These provinces include Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape. The former recorded an expanded unemployment rate of 49.3%, underscoring widespread challenges across provinces.

The Eastern Cape is closely followed by an expanded unemployment rate of 49%, while Limpopo is starting to become a concern at 48.6%.

The worsening of employment rates in Mpumalanga is surprising, given the region’s reliance on industries vulnerable to economic shocks such as mining.

The Eastern Cape has also been met with structural issues in education, infrastructure, and access to opportunities, perpetuating a cycle of stagnation.