DA victory in Tshwane looks slim
A new poll released by StratAfrica Research shows that the ANC is likely to comfortably win the Tshwane municipality in the next municipal elections – while the DA’s “coveted” 50% support level looks out of reach.
According to the poll, the ANC has 53% support in the region, with 35% for the Democratic Alliance, 10% for the Economic Freedom Fighters, and 2% for all other smaller parties combined.
The research group noted that there is a high level of voter loyalty towards the ANC, with 72% of supporters indicating they would not change their vote, even if ANC officials performed poorly.
StratAfrica spokesperson Charl Oberholzer said it appears that victory is beyond reach for any single opposition party such as the DA.
“All opposition parties together received 47% support in the poll,” he said.
“The error margin of more than 4.4 percentage points suggests that it is not inconceivable that these parties combined may receive more than 50% – leaving open a slight possibility of a coalition victory.”
8.5% of respondents indicated they would not vote for the same party they did last time, while 11% indicated they didn’t know who they would vote for.
The survey consisted of 500 face-to-face interviews with South African citizens aged 18 and older who were selected in a random sample drawn from the City of Tshwane metropolitan area.
Compared to previous election data, the research group noted that both the DA and ANC seem to have lost support to the EFF between the 2011 municipal and 2014 national elections.
However, the survey results suggest that EFF support has stalled in 2015, while both the DA and ANC have increased levels of support in the Tshwane metro.
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