Forget AI and Q Day – This is the big threat to South Africa’s banking sector
While many banking industry thought leaders are focused on cutting-edge technologies like AI and Quantum Computing, they should be more concerned with factors like geopolitical risk.
This is according to Monocle CEO David Buckham, who was speaking at the 2025 Beyond Banking Conference.
Hosted by GIBS and sponsored by Monocle, this event is the premier banking conference in South Africa and is attended by an elite group of top banking executives and thought leaders.
Watch the video below to learn more about the 2025 Beyond Banking Conference.
Beware the hype
Speaking on a Beyond Banking Conference panel, Buckham said he disagrees with the level of hype that trendy themes like AI and Q Day are receiving in the banking community.
“For the latest two to three decades, we have consistently focused on narratives,” said Buckham.
He highlighted examples like Robot Processing Automation (RPA), blockchain, AI, and now Q Day.
“I think we get caught up in these narratives – and I think many of these trends end up being overhyped,” said Buckham.
Buckham believes Q Day is unlikely to take place in the next 30 years.
Furthermore, if Q Day were to happen, it would effectively negate the power of AI, and the same could happen with another “DeepSeek moment” – where all of our existing AI investments and innovation are rendered inferior.
The bigger threat
Instead of putting all of our focus on trends like AI and Q Day, Buckham said we should place a larger focus on the geopolitical risks facing banks.
He highlighted that the world’s major cloud providers are centralised in the West, and more specifically in the US – a country that is in an incredibly unstable geopolitical position.
“It’s not necessarily that we don’t trust the abilities of these tech firms – it’s the relationships we have politically with these countries that could put banking cloud infrastructure in jeopardy,” said Buckham.
He highlighted how when the US sanctioned many Chinese companies, it resulted in companies like Huawei being unable to work with Google.
A similar situation in South Africa could prove catastrophic to the banking industry, which relies heavily on US cloud infrastructure.
The solution
Buckham pointed to India’s approach to geopolitics as one that South Africa should follow.
India has managed to toe the line between its relationship with the US and its relationship with the East to great effect.
Buckham believes South Africa must follow suit – and he said President Ramaphosa is well qualified to do this.
“President Ramaphosa is a seasoned campaigner, and one of the chief negotiators during the Irish troubles,” said Buckham.
“He has the ability to help us get back onside with the US and magnify our position between the BRICS multipolar world and a US world.”
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