South African Breakfast Index: mornings are getting a lot rougher

It costs 11.1% more to fry up a traditional farmhouse breakfast in South Africa compared to a year ago, as the cost of living continues to rise in the country.
Using the South African Breakfast Index – an index tracking the month-to-month prices of ingredients used to make breakfast in the country – the basket of items needed to make breakfast now totals R395.68 in October 2022, up 11.1% from R356.18 in October 2021.
The South African Breakfast Index is an adaptation of similar indices created abroad. Used by Hard Assets Investor (HAI) in the US and Bloomberg in the UK, it is a price indicator that measures inflation in wholesale food prices.
The prices used in the South African index come from Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) numbers tracked by Statistics South Africa. The reason breakfast is chosen is that it is a common meal that many households in the country would make and is reflective of the real impact of price inflation on daily life.
Stats SA published the latest CPI data for October 2022 on Wednesday (23 November), showing a surprise turn in inflation, which has now increased marginally to 7.6%
As has been the case for much of the year, CPI is being driven by rising food prices and still-high fuel prices, with the former now escalating to 12.0% in October.
According to Stats SA, bread and cereals, alongside meat and dairy, are currently driving food prices higher in South Africa.
The bread and cereals category continues to witness high levels of inflation, with the annual rate increasing to 19.5% from 19.3% in September. Large monthly price increases were recorded for sweet biscuits (5.5%), macaroni (3.1%) and maize meal (1.7%).
Annual meat inflation also quickened in October, rising to 10.5% from 9.9% in September. Beef prices registered large monthly increases, most notably steak (2.5%), stewing beef (1.2%) and mince (1.1%).
The dairy index (milk, eggs and cheese) registered an annual increase of 10.5%, the highest rate since February 2017 (10.7%). Products recording significant monthly increases include long-life full-cream milk (3.5%), fresh full-cream milk (1.8%) and cheddar cheese (1.2%).
Breakfast Index
It’s within the food basket that the Breakfast Index is rooted.
Looking at the latest CPI data for October 2022, the overall cost to make breakfast (for however many people the basket could conceivably feed) is R395.68, up 0.7% month-on-month from R392.89 in September 2022.
Year on year, the basket is up 11.1% from R356.18 in October 2021 and up almost 32% over the last five years from R300.24 in October 2017.
In line with overall CPI findings, bread is a sizeable contributor to the higher price, up 23% from last year – but it’s actually the instant coffee that has seen the biggest climb at 27%.
Sausage and milk have also seen significant hikes at 12.6% and 11.1%, respectively, while tomatoes have also seen double-digit price growth at 14.7% – although this is also the only item other than instant coffee to have come down in price month on month since September.
The basket includes ten items:
- Milk
- Coffee
- Sugar
- Eggs
- Bacon
- Sausage
- Mushrooms
- Tomato
- Margarine
- Bread
The table below outlines the price changes in the basket.
Breakfast item | Quantity | October 2021 | September 2022 | October 2022 | MoM% | YoY% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loaf of brown bread | 700 grams | R13.59 | R16.69 | R16.75 | 0.4% | 23.3% |
Bacon | 200 grams | R35.63 | R36.48 | R36.74 | 0.7% | 3.1% |
Sausage | Per kg | R89.12 | R98.10 | R100.31 | 2.3% | 12.6% |
Full cream milk | 2 litre | R30.24 | R33.03 | R33.61 | 1.8% | 11.1% |
Eggs | 6 eggs | R19.71 | R20.54 | R20.76 | 1.1% | 5.3% |
Margarine | 500 grams | R33.28 | R33.50 | R34.00 | 1.5% | 2.2% |
Tomatoes | Per kg | R21.90 | R27.05 | R25.11 | -7.2% | 14.7% |
Mushrooms | 250 grams | R26.91 | R27.74 | R28.74 | 3.6% | 6.8% |
White sugar | 2.5kg | R46.77 | R49.74 | R50.04 | 0.6% | 7.0% |
Instant coffee | 250 grams | R39.03 | R50.02 | R49.62 | -0.8% | 27.1% |
Total | R356.18 | R392.89 | R395.68 | 0.7% | 11.1% |
Read: Inflation shock for South Africa – and it’s bad news for meat lovers