More pain for braai lovers in South Africa

South African consumers can expect to pay even more to host a braai, with food prices rising sharply in June compared to a year ago.

On top of a marginal increase of 0.1% between May and June 2025, prices in the Braai Index have climbed almost 9% from the same time in 2024.

The Braai Index, originally developed by Bloomberg, is compiled monthly using pricing data from the Pietermaritzburg Equity Justice and Dignity (PMBEJD) group.

It tracks the prices of a selection of essential items typically used for a South African braai, offering a focused view of inflation at the grill.

This includes meat (beef, wors, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green pepper) and others (samp, maize, curry powder, salt).

Looking at the month-on-month index, potatoes (-10.7%) and green peppers (-6.5%) saw sharp price decreases, but these were counterbalanced by increases for beef (+5.3%) and onions (+8.7%).

Overall, the month-on-month basket was barely changed, increasing only 0.1%. However, this comes from consecutive monthly increases since March 2025.

The real jump comes when looking at prices year-on-year, with the basket shooting up 8.9% from June 2024.

Only one item in the basket dropped in price, and this was only a marginal 0.5% decline in the price of curry powder.

All other times increased year-on-year, with carrots, samp, maize, spinach and beef all posting double-digit increases.

Notably, this overall trend in the index reflects rising food prices as tracked by Stats SA as well.

The latest inflation reading for May 2025 showed overall CPI flat at 2.8%, but inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages pushed higher.

The annual rate for the category increased from 4.0% in April to 4.8% in May, the highest print since March 2024 when the rate stood at 5.1%.

Month-on-month index change [+0.1%]

Year-on-year index change [+8.9%]

Meat prices are likely to rise

South Africa’s inflation data tracks warnings from beef and meat producers in the country that these food items are likely to see prices rise further in the coming months.

South Africa’s beef industry has been hit by foot and mouth disease, which will impact production.

While the country could see strong supplies in the medium term due to the closing of exports, in the near term, stock losses may add to price pressure.

Outside of the beef industry, South Africa’s chicken production has been impacted by the collapse of Daybreak Foods.

The state-owned group was key to delivering fresh frozen chicken products to the local market, but it collapsed after years of financial difficulties.

Operations got so dire that the NSPCA had to intervene, euthanising over 350,000 birds.

Meanwhile, a May ban on the import of mechanically deboned (MDM) meat from Brazil due to an outbreak of the avian flu will likely add price pressure for many protein products.

MDM is used to manufacture polony, viennas, Russians, braai wors, bangers, frozen burgers, meat pies, and corned meat, among other things.

While the ban on MDM imports from Brazil has been partially lifted, technicalities around certification have delayed the process, meaning production has been idle for more than a month.

Meat producers have warned that this will inevitably lead to food shortages and price increases as the sector moves to recover.

According to Stats SA, meat, especially beef, is a key reason for the rise in food inflation. The annual rate for meat jumped from 3.0% in April to 4.4% in May. 

In April, monthly increases for beef products ranged from 6.2% to 11.9%. In May, notable increases were recorded for beef steak, up 4.5%, stewing beef, up 2.5% and beef mince, up 1.7%.